West Ham host Arsenal in the televised game tonight and you don’t want to miss this 188BET offer! If a red card is shown in West Ham v Arsenal, 188BET will refund losing pre-match mobile bets on all markets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £23.10 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed pre-match via mobile between 00:01 on Monday 11th December 2017 and 20:00 (kick-off) on Wednesday 13th December 2017, to be eligible.
Only losing bets are refunded in the event that a red card is shown, so ideally we need to select something that we don’t think will come in. Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Arsenal in the ‘Win Draw Win (1X2)’ market.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Betfair as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and if we opt in, they are charging just 2% commission on Premier League Match Odds bets until 3rd January 2018.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.85…
Place £25.00 on Arsenal @ 1.64 = Potential profit of £16.00
Lay £24.85 on Arsenal @ 1.67 = Potential liability of £16.64
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
Arsenal win | + £16.00 – £16.64 = £0.64 loss |
Arsenal don’t win and red card shown | – £25.00 + £24.35 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £23.10 profit |
Arsenal don’t win and red card not shown | – £25.00 + £24.35 = £0.65 loss |
So, if Arsenal don’t win and a red card is shown, we’ll make a nice profit of £23.10. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a maximum loss of £0.65. Risking £0.65 to make a profit of £23.10, gives us effective odds of 36.54, so given that the odds are only 4.00 for a red card to be shown, this is a profitable offer in the long run, even though we need Arsenal not to win.
Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.
Free bets will be credited automatically within 72 hours of settlement of the qualifying bet and a red card being shown in the respective match. Free bets will be valid for 30 days.
* The match was drawn 0-0 and no red card was shown, resulting in a loss of £0.65 on this 188BET offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.