It’s time for the FA Cup 4th Round replays and a cracking ApolloBet free bet offer! If 2 or more goals are scored in Bolton Wanderers v Liverpool on Wednesday, ApolloBet will refund all losing First/Last/Anytime Goalscorer and Correct Score bets on that match as a free bet up to a maximum of £50.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £25.32 and here’s how…
Qualifying bet
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how to place your qualifying bets.
The best strategy for this offer is to select a correct score that sees less than 2 goals, so a 0-0 draw or 1-0 to either team. This ensures that if 2 or more goals are scored, we will automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted for a 1-0 Liverpool win.
Place £50.00 on 1-0 Liverpool @ 7.50 = Potential profit of £325.00
Lay £40.98 on 1-0 Liverpool @ 9.20 = Potential liability of £336.04
Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| 1-0 Liverpool | +£325.00 – £336.04 = £11.04 loss |
| Not 1-0 Liverpool and 2 or more goals are scored | -£50.00 + £38.93 + £40.00 (extract 80% from our £50.00 free bet) = £28.93 profit |
| Not 1-0 Liverpool and less than 2 goals are scored | -£50.00 + £38.93 = £11.07 loss |
So as things stand we will make £28.93 profit if there are 2 or more goals scored in Bolton v Liverpool. Unfortunately, we also stand to lose a maximum of £11.07 if less than 2 goals are scored and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying ‘Over 1.5 Goals’ at Betfair. We need to divide £11.07 by 0.95 in order to factor in the 5% commission. This gives us a lay stake of £11.65.
Lay £11.65 on Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.31 = Potential liability of £3.61
Let’s have a look at our resulting potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| 1-0 Liverpool | -£11.04 + £11.07 = £0.03 profit |
| Not 1-0 Liverpool and 2 or more goals are scored | £28.93 – £3.61 = £25.32 profit |
| Not 1-0 Liverpool and less than 2 goals are scored | -£11.07 + £11.07 = £0.00 |
So if there are 2 or more goals scored in Bolton v Liverpool, we will make a nice profit of £25.32! If there are less than 2 goals, we will break even and there’s no harm done.
If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of the £50.00 free bet refund, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £100,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.