ApolloBet are getting in on the weekend’s action with a great offer on today’s football. If Watford score two or more goals against Crystal Palace, ApolloBet will refund losing First/Last/Anytime Goalscorer and Correct Score bets as a free bet up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential risk-free profit of £5.40 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
We need to place our qualifying bet on a correct score that doesn’t see Watford scoring two or more goals. This ensures that if Watford score two or more goals, we’ll be eligible for our free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on a 1-1 draw.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges. We can calculate our lay stakes using the matched betting calculator.
Place £25.00 on 1-1 draw @ 6.00 = Potential profit of £125.00
Lay £20.33 on a 1-1 draw @ 7.40 = Potential liability of £130.08
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the three outcomes…
| 1-1 draw | +£125.00 – £130.08 = £5.08 loss |
| Not 1-1 draw and Watford score 2+ goals | -£25.00 + £19.92 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £14.92 profit |
| Not 1-1 draw and Watford don’t score 2+ goals | -£25.00 + £19.92 = £5.08 loss |
As things stand, if Watford score two or more goals, we will make a profit of £14.92, but we’ll lose £5.08 on any other outcome. It’s not often we are able to do this but by laying Watford to score two or more goals, we can make this offer risk-free. To work out our lay stake, we need to divide £5.08 by 0.95 to account for the 5% commission Betfair charge on winnings. So, £5.08 divided by 0.95 gives us a lay stake of £5.35.
Lay £5.35 on ‘Watford – 2 Goals or More’ @ 2.78 = Potential liability of £9.52
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the three outcomes…
| 1-1 draw | -£5.08 + £5.08 = £0.00 |
| Not 1-1 draw and Watford score 2+ goals | £14.92 – £9.52 = £5.40 profit |
| Not 1-1 draw and Watford don’t score 2+ goals | -£5.08 + £5.08 = £0.00 |
So if Watford fail to score two or more goals, we’ll have broken even and there’s no harm done. If, however, Watford do score two or more goals, we’ll have made a nice risk-free profit of £5.40 on this offer.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* If you don’t already have an ApolloBet account, this is a perfect opportunity to enter my racing competition. I’m giving away 5 pairs of tickets to Haydock races and 5 x £20.00 free bets! *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.