It’s Argentina v Croatia on Thursday night and you don’t want to miss this Money Back Special from Paddy Power. Simply place a bet on selected markets and if Lionel Messi scores anytime, Paddy Power will refund all losing bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £6.20 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed pre-match. The eligible markets are First/Last/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score and WhatOddsPaddy.
For our qualifying bet, we need to back and lay a selection of our choice. Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on 1-0 Croatia (9/1) in the Correct Score market.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator.
Aim to lose no more than £1.80 on our qualifying bet
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| 1-0 Croatia | + £90.00 – £91.80 = £1.80 loss |
| Not 1-0 Croatia and Messi scores | – £10.00 + £8.20 + £8.00 (extract 80% from our £10.00 free bet) = £6.20 profit |
| Not 1-0 Croatia and Messi doesn’t score | – £10.00 + £8.20 = £1.80 loss |
So, we’ll make a nice profit of £6.20 if Messi scores and we stand to lose around £1.80 on any other outcome. Risking £1.80 to make a profit of £6.20 gives us effective odds of 4.444. So, given that Messi is odds of just 2.10 (11/10) to score anytime, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, free bets will be credited within two hours of the match ending and will be valid for 7 days on football markets.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of a £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* Messi did not score and Croatia won the match 3-0, resulting in a loss of £1.80 on this Paddy Power offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £100,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.