Argentina v Iceland Offer – Paddy Power

It’s Argentina v Iceland in Group D on Saturday and you don’t want to miss this Money Back Special from Paddy Power. Simply place a bet on selected markets and if Lionel Messi scores anytime, Paddy Power will refund all losing bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £6.40 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

Qualifying bets must be placed pre-match. The eligible markets are First/Last/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score and WhatOddsPaddy.

For our qualifying bet, we need to back and lay a selection of our choice. Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on a 0-0 draw (11/1) in the Correct Score market.

We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator.

Paddy Power logo

Aim to lose no more than £1.60 on our qualifying bet

Outcomes:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

0-0 draw + £110.00 – £111.60 = £1.60 loss
Not a 0-0 draw and Messi scores – £10.00 + £8.40 + £8.00 (extract 80% from our £10.00 free bet) = £6.40 profit
Not a 0-0 draw and Messi doesn’t score – £10.00 + £8.40 = £1.60 loss

So, we’ll make a nice profit of £6.40 if Messi scores and we stand to lose around £1.60 on any other outcome. Risking £1.60 to make a profit of £6.40 gives us effective odds of 5.00. So, given that Messi is odds of 1.615 (8/13) to score anytime, this is a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, free bets will be credited within two hours of the match ending and will be valid for 7 days on football markets.

If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of a £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

* The match was drawn 1-1 and Messi didn’t score, resulting in a loss of £1.60 on this Paddy Power offer. *

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.