£35.48
Potential Profit
£-2.07
Actual Profit

Arsenal v Atletico Madrid Offer – Coral


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 26/04/2018 20:05

It’s Arsenal v Atletico Madrid in the Europa League Semi-Finals on Thursday and you don’t want to miss this Double Winnings offer from Coral. Simply place a £5.00+ win single on the 90 minute Match Betting market for Arsenal v Atletico Madrid and if our selected team wins both halves, Coral will double our winnings up to £50.00, in free bets! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £35.48 and here’s how…

Coral Offer - Arsenal v Atletico Madrid

The Strategy:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

Qualifying bets must be placed between 00:01 on Wednesday 25th April 2018 and 20:05 (kick-off) on Thursday 26th April 2018, to be eligible.

To qualify, we must place a £5.00+ Single bet on the 90 minute win-draw-win market. If our team wins the first half and then goes on to win the second half, Coral will double our winnings in free bets.

NOTE: The To Win Both Halves and Half-Time/Full-Time markets are different. A team can be leading at half-time and full-time without having won both halves, as shown in the following table…

1st Half Score2nd Half ScoreFinal ScoreWin Both HalvesHalf-Time/Full-Time
0-01-01-0NoNo
1-00-01-0NoYes
1-01-02-0YesYes

The maximum free bet is £50.00 per customer and this will be credited within 24 hours of our bet being settled. Free bets will be valid for 4 days and free bet stakes are not included in any returns.

Qualifying bet:

It’s entirely up to you which team you go for. At the time of writing, the lay odds are not quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional odds for Arsenal in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with some actual odds after the match.

In order to work out our back stake, we need to divide £50.00 by 1.45 (back odds minus 1.00). This gives us a back stake of £34.48. It’s best that we stick to round numbers when placing our qualifying bet, so we should stake £35.00 instead.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Betfair as they have great liquidity and the site is really easy to use.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £34.72…

Coral logo

Place £35.00 on Arsenal @ 2.45 = Potential profit of £50.75

Betfair logo

Lay £34.72 on Arsenal @ 2.52 = Potential liability of £52.77

Outcomes:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Arsenal win the match but not both halves+ £50.75 – £52.77 = £2.02 loss
Arsenal win the match having won both halves+ £50.75 – £52.77 + £37.50 (75% extracted from £50.00 free bet) = £35.48 profit
Arsenal don't win the match- £35.00 + £32.98 = £2.02 loss

So, if Arsenal win both halves, we’ll make a nice profit of £35.48. Any other outcome and we’ll lose £2.02. Risking £2.02 to make a profit of £35.48, gives us effective odds of 18.56. So, given that Arsenal are odds of just 9.50 to win both halves, this is a profitable offer in the long run.

NOTE: We can actually make this offer risk-free by placing an extra lay bet on our selected team to ‘win both halves’ on the Betfair Exchange. In order to work out our lay stake, we just need to divide our potential qualifying loss by 0.95 (to account for the 5% commission).

If the odds are decent pre-match or if our selection is winning at half-time, we can actually overlay to guarantee ourselves a profit on any outcome. To calculate our overlay stake, we would just need to divide the amount we can expect to extract from our free bet by the lay odds (minus 0.05 to account for the 5% commission). So, using the above figures as an example, if the lay odds were 6.00, we would divide £37.50 by 5.95, giving us an overlay stake of £6.30 and a guaranteed profit of £3.96.

* Arsenal were available to back (£30.00) at odds of 2.50 and lay at odds of 2.60. The first half was drawn 0-0 and the second half was drawn 1-1, resulting in a loss of £2.07 on this Coral offer. *

Comments


  1. jimmyjames

    Looks like this has been pulled. Live chat, for what it’s worth, confirmed it’s ‘not available’.

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