It’s Arsenal v Man Utd in the late kick-off on New Year’s Day and you don’t want to miss this First Goal Wins offer from Betway! Simply bet up to £20.00 on Arsenal or Man Utd to win the match and if our selected team scores first, Betway will pay us out as a winner, in cash, no matter the final result! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £52.62 and here’s how…
Key Terms:
- Maximum qualifying stake of £20.00.
- Qualifying single bets must be placed on Arsenal or Man Utd in the Win/Draw/Win market.
- Qualifying bets must be placed before 20:00 (kick-off) on Wednesday 1st January 2020.
- If our selected team score first but don’t win, Betway will pay our bet out in cash, within 24 hours.
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Arsenal in the Win/Draw/Win market.
If Arsenal score first and go on to draw or lose the match, Betway will pay our bet out as a winner, in cash.
At the time of writing, laying our bet at Betfair gives us the smallest qualifying loss.
Betfair are currently running a great sign up offer where you pay 0% commission up to £500 for the first 30 days…
If you already have a Betfair account, you can opt to pay just 2% commission by selecting the Basic package.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £19.01…
Place £20.00 on Arsenal @ 2.70 = Potential profit of £34.00
Lay £19.01 on Arsenal @ 2.86 = Potential liability of £35.35
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Outcome | Bookie | Exchange | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal score first and win | +£34.00 | -£35.35 | £1.35 loss |
| Arsenal score first and don’t win | +£34.00 | +£18.62 | £52.62 profit |
| Arsenal don’t score first and win | +£34.00 | -£35.35 | £1.35 loss |
| Arsenal don’t score first and don’t win | -£20.00 | +£18.62 | £1.38 loss |
So, if Arsenal score first and go on to draw or lose the game, we’ll receive cash returns of £54.00, giving us a profit of £34.00 at Betway. We’ll also win £18.62 from our lay bet at Betfair, giving us an overall potential profit of £52.62!
Any other outcome and we’ll lose a maximum of £1.38. Risking £1.38 to make a profit of £52.62, gives us effective odds of 39.13, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, our cash winnings will be credited within 24 hours of the match ending.
Note: If your team scores first, you can either let it run as above or place an extra back bet on them to lock in a profit. If you decide to guarantee a profit, you just need to divide the sum of your potential loss and potential profit by the back odds. For example, if the back odds are 1.50 (1/2), you would divide £53.97 (£1.35 + £52.62) by 1.50, giving you a back stake of £35.98 and a guaranteed profit of £16.64.
* Arsenal scored first and went on to win the match 2-0, resulting in a loss of £1.35 on this Betway offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.