Arsenal vs Chelsea Paddy Power Money-Back Special

This is a great Christmas offer from Paddy Power.  If the match ends as a draw, Paddy Power will refund all losing First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast singles on the match, up to a maximum of £100.  Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of approximately £17.00!  And here’s how…

Whenever I do these sort of money-back offers, I always stick to the correct score market.  I find the liquidity at the betting exchange is far better than goalscorer markets and I just feel more comfortable here.

We will need to select a correct score that isn’t a draw and I will explain why later.  With that in mind and having looked at the odds on offer, I’ve opted for a 2-1 Chelsea win.

Step 1:

Step 2:

Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…

2-1 Chelsea              £1,000 – £1,022.25 = -£22.25

Draw                       +£77.69 (£81.78 minus 5% commission) *Our £100 stake is refunded

Not Draw or 2-1      -£100 + £77.69 = -£22.31

So as things stand we will win £77.69 if the game ends as a draw! Unfortunately we also stand to lose just over £20.00 if the game doesn’t end in a draw and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying the draw at Betfair.  If we had selected a correct score that was a draw such as 0-0 or 1-1, it would make the next step a lot more complicated.

Step 3:

As £22.31 is the maximum we stand to lose, we need to work out our draw lay stake by taking commission into consideration.  £22.31 / 0.95 = £23.48.

Now let’s have a look at our overall potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…

2-1 Chelsea             -£22.25 + £22.31 = £0.06 profit

Draw                         £77.69 – £59.87 = £17.56 profit

Not Draw or 2-1      -£22.31 + £22.31 = £0.00

So, if the game isn’t drawn we break even, but if the game is drawn we make £17.56 profit for very little work!