Betfair Exchange – Aston Villa v Man City Offer

It’s Aston Villa v Man City in the Premier League on Saturday, and Betfair are getting in on the action! Place an Exchange bet of up to £10.00 on over 2.5 goals in the match, and if your bet loses, your stake will be refunded as a free bet. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives you a profit of £2.35 and here’s how…

Key terms

  • Place an Exchange bet of up to £10.00 on ‘Over 2.5 Goals‘ in Aston Villa v Man City.
  • Applies to bets placed between 00:00 on Friday 2nd September 2022 and kick-off (17:30) on Saturday 3rd September 2022.
  • Applies to your first bet placed on the selected market only.
  • Applies to back bets only; lay bets do not qualify.
  • Money back as a free bet if your bet loses.
  • Betfair Rewards ‘Basic’ customers are excluded from this promotion.
  • If eligible, your free bet will be credited within 24 hours.
  • The free bet will be valid on any football market for 7 days.

Qualifying bet

If your qualifying bet loses, Betfair will refund your stake as a free bet, so you can treat this as a ‘Money Back if Bet Loses‘ offer.

You can work out your lay stake using the ‘Money Back if Bet Loses‘ setting on my Matched Betting Calculator. You can enter ‘£8.00‘ as your ‘Cashback’ figure as that is the amount you can expect to convert your £10.00 free bet into, should your bet lose.

Select bet type

Back Bet (Bookie)

Advanced
%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells you that your lay stake should be £4.44.

Place £10.00 on ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ @ 1.50 = Potential profit of £4.75

Lay £4.44 on ‘Over 2.5’ (Goals) @ 1.54 = Potential liability of £2.39

Outcomes

Let’s look at your profit/loss for the possible outcomes.

OutcomeBetfairExchangeFree BetProfit/Loss
Over 2.5 goals+ £4.75– £2.39£2.36 profit
Under 2.5 goals– £10.00+ £4.35+ £8.00£2.35 profit

So, no matter the outcome, you’ll make a minimum profit of £2.35 on this Betting Exchange offer!

If you’re unsure how to convert your £10.00 free bet into £8.00 cash (80%), please see my ‘Free Bets Guide‘ for a walkthrough.

* The match was drawn 1-1, resulting in a £2.35 profit on this Betfair Exchange offer. *

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £60,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.