It’s Belgium v Wales in the UEFA Nations League on Thursday night, and Betfair are getting in on the action! Place an Exchange bet of up to £10.00 on over 2.5 goals, and if your bet loses, your stake will be refunded as a free bet. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives you a profit of £3.03 and here’s how…
Key terms
- Place an Exchange bet of up to £10.00 on ‘Over 2.5 Goals‘ in Belgium v Wales.
- Applies to bets placed between 00:00 on Wednesday 21st September 2022 and 19:45 (kick-off) on Thursday 22nd September 2022.
- Applies to your first bet placed on the selected market only.
- Applies to back bets only; lay bets do not qualify.
- Money back as a free bet if your bet loses.
- Betfair Rewards ‘Basic’ customers are excluded from this promotion.
- If eligible, your free bet will be credited within 24 hours.
- The free bet will be valid on any football market for 7 days.
Qualifying bet
If your qualifying bet loses, Betfair will refund your stake as a free bet, so you can treat this as a ‘Money Back if Bet Loses‘ offer.
You can work out your lay stake using the ‘Money Back if Bet Loses‘ setting on my Matched Betting Calculator. You can enter ‘£8.00‘ as your ‘Cashback’ figure as that is the amount you can expect to convert your £10.00 free bet into, should your bet lose.
As you can see, the calculator tells you that your lay stake should be £5.14.
Place £10.00 on ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ @ 1.78 = Potential profit of £7.41
Lay £5.14 on ‘Over 2.5’ (Goals Over/Under) @ 1.85 = Potential liability of £4.36
Outcomes
Let’s look at your profit/loss for the possible outcomes.
| Outcome | Betfair | Exchange | Free Bet | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | + £7.41 | – £4.36 | £3.05 profit | |
| Under 2.5 goals | – £10.00 | + £5.03 | + £8.00 | £3.03 profit |
So, no matter the outcome, you’ll make a minimum profit of £3.03 on this Betfair Exchange offer!
If you’re unsure how to convert your £10.00 free bet into £8.00 cash (80%), please see my ‘Free Bets Guide‘ for a walkthrough.
* Belgium won the match 2-1, resulting in a £3.05 profit on this Betfair Exchange offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.