Betfair Free Bet Offer – Brazil v Germany

It’s Betfair free bet time again!  Place a pre-match Sportsbook Correct Score, Scorecast, First, Last or Anytime Goalscorer market bet on Brazil v Germany and get a full refund as a free bet token if it goes to Extra Time, up to a maximum of £25.00.  Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential risk-free profit of £6.38 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how to place your qualifying bets.

I always stick to the correct score markets for these types of offers and for this particular offer, we need to select a correct score that isn’t a draw.  This ensures that we qualify for the free bet in the event that the match goes into extra-time as our qualifying bet will have lost.  Having looked at the odds on offer, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on 2-0 Germany.

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Place £25.00 on 2-0 Germany @ 15.00 = Potential profit of £350.00

ladbrokes

 

Lay £22.12 on 2-0 Germany @ 17.00 = Potential liability of £353.92

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the various outcomes…

 

2-0 Germany

+£350.00 – £353.92 = £3.92 loss

Extra-time

-£25.00 + £21.02 + £20.00 (Assumes an 80% return from our £25.00 free bet) = £16.02 profit

Not 2-0 Germany or extra-time

-£25.00 + £21.02 = £3.98 loss

 

If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.

So as things stand we will make £16.02 profit if the match goes into extra-time.  Unfortunately, if the match isn’t level after 90 minutes, we stand to lose a maximum of £3.98 and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying the draw at the betting exchange.

To calculate our lay stake, we need to divide the £3.98 by 0.95 to allow for the 5% commission.  This gives us a lay stake of £4.19.

ladbrokes

 

Lay £4.19 on the draw @ 3.30 = Potential liability of £9.64

Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the three outcomes…

 

2-0 Germany

-£3.92 – £3.98 = £0.06 profit

Extra-time

£16.02 – £9.64 = £6.38 profit

Not 2-0 Germany or extra-time

-£3.98 + £3.98 = £0.00

 

So if the match isn’t level after 90 minutes, we will break even and there’s no harm done.  However, if the game does go into extra-time, we will make a nice risk-free profit of £6.38!

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.