It’s Betfair free bet time again! If your selected refund trigger (exclusive to us) occurs in the game (90 minutes plus injury time) Betfair will refund our first bet, should it lose, from pre-match MATCH ODDS, Correct Score, Anytime Correct Score, First, Last or Anytime Goalscorer as a free bet up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential risk-free profit of £14.88 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how to place your qualifying bets.
We need to place our qualifying bet on the match odds market as this is where we will find the best odds for matching, which will keep our qualifying loss at a minimum. Chelsea are big favourites to beat Arsenal and so I’ve selected them as my refund trigger. You have the option to select either a Chelsea win, a draw or an Arsenal win. Having looked at the odds on offer, I’ve placed my qualifying bet on the draw.
Place £25.00 on a draw @ 3.90 = Potential profit of £72.50
Lay £24.07 on a draw @ 4.10 = Potential liability of £74.62
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the three outcomes…
Draw |
+£72.50 – £74.62 = £2.12 loss |
Chelsea win |
-£25.00 + £22.87 + £20.00 (Assumes an 80% return from our £25.00 free bet) = £17.87 profit |
Arsenal win |
-£25.00 + £22.87 = £2.13 loss |
If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
So we will make £17.87 profit if Chelsea win. If Chelsea don’t win, we stand to lose a maximum of £2.13 and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying Chelsea at the betting exchange.
To calculate our lay stake, we need to divide the £2.13 by 0.95 to allow for the 5% commission. This gives us a lay stake of £2.24.
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the three outcomes…
Draw |
-£2.12 + £2.13 = £0.01 profit |
Chelsea win |
£17.87 – £2.99 = £14.88 profit |
Arsenal win |
-£2.13 + £2.13 = £0.00 |
So if the match isn’t won by Chelsea, we will break even and there’s no harm done. However, if Chelsea do beat Arsenal, we will make a nice risk-free profit of £14.88!
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.