It’s Betfair free bet time again! Place a pre-match Sportsbook Correct Score, Scorecast, First, Last or Anytime Goalscorer market bet on France v Germany and get a full refund as a free bet token if it goes to Extra Time, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential risk-free profit of £5.73 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how to place your qualifying bets.
I always stick to the correct score markets for these types of offers and for this particular offer, we need to select a correct score that isn’t a draw. This ensures that we qualify for the free bet in the event that the match goes into extra-time as our qualifying bet will have lost. Having looked at the odds on offer, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on 1-0 Germany.
Place £25.00 on 1-0 Germany @ 7.50 = Potential profit of £162.50
Lay £21.93 on 1-0 Germany @ 8.60 = Potential liability of £166.67
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the various outcomes…
|
1-0 Germany |
+£162.50 – £166.67 = £4.17 loss |
|
Extra-time |
-£25.00 + £20.83 + £20.00 (Assumes an 80% return from our £25.00 free bet) = £15.83 profit |
|
Not 1-0 Germany or extra-time |
-£25.00 + £20.83 = £4.17 loss |
If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
So as things stand we will make £15.83 profit if the match goes into extra-time. Unfortunately, if the match isn’t level after 90 minutes, we stand to lose £4.17 and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying the draw at the betting exchange.
To calculate our lay stake, we need to divide the £4.17 by 0.95 to allow for the 5% commission. This gives us a lay stake of £4.39.
Lay £4.39 on the draw @ 3.30 = Potential liability of £10.10
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the three outcomes…
|
1-0 Germany |
-£4.17 + £4.17 = £0.00 |
|
Extra-time |
£15.83 – £10.10 = £5.73 profit |
|
Not 1-0 Germany or extra-time |
-£4.17 + £4.17 = £0.00 |
So if the match isn’t level after 90 minutes, we will break even and there’s no harm done. However, if the game does go into extra-time, we will make a nice risk-free profit of £5.73!
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.