Betfair Offer – European Goalscorer Double Odds

The Champions League and Europa League knockout stages continue this week and you don’t want to miss this Betfair Sportsbook offer. Place a pre-match single bet on the First, Last or Anytime Goalscorer market in any Champions League or Europa League match this week, and if our winning selection scores again, Betfair will double our odds on that market. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £50.00+ and here’s how…

Qualifying Bets:

This week’s eligible matches are as follows…

Fixture Kick-Off Date
Arsenal v Bayern Munich 19:45 Tuesday 7th March 2017
Napoli v Real Madrid 19:45 Tuesday 7th March 2017
Barcelona v PSG 19:45 Wednesday 8th March 2017
Dortmund v Benfica 19:45 Wednesday 8th March 2017
Apoel Nicosia v Anderlecht 18:00 Thursday 9th March 2017
FC Copenhagen v Ajax 18:00 Thursday 9th March 2017
FC Rostov v Man Utd 18:00 Thursday 9th March 2017
Celta Vigo v FK Krasnodar 20:05 Thursday 9th March 2017
FC Schalke 04 v Mönchengladbach 20:05 Thursday 9th March 2017
KAA Gent v KRC Genk 20:05 Thursday 9th March 2017
Lyon v Roma 20:05 Thursday 9th March 2017
Olympiakos v Besiktas 20:05 Thursday 9th March 2017

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

In order to be eligible for this offer, our £10.00 (max.) qualifying bet must be placed pre-match on either the First, Last or Anytime Goalscorer market. If our selection wins and then scores again, Betfair will double our odds. Winnings will be paid in cash at the normal price and then topped up to double odds with free bets. So, for example, if we place £10.00 on a winning Goalscorer at odds of 6.00 (5/1), we would receive £60.00 in cash and £50.00 in free bets, if he scores again.

It’s best that we place our qualifying bets on the First Goalscorer market as this gives us the best effective odds.

The terms state this offer is limited to one per person. This just means that we can only use one account for this offer, so we’re okay to bet on multiple matches (live chat).

It’s entirely up to you which matches you place your qualifying bets on. The lay odds are unlikely to be tight enough until the run up to kick-off, so I’ll use fictional odds for Arsenal v Bayern Munich in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of this post with my actual selection after the matches have been played.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.55…

betfair

Place £10.00 on Lewandowski @ 3.80 = Potential profit of £28.00

smarkets white

Lay £9.55 on Lewandowski @ 4.00 = Potential liability of £28.64

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Lewandowski scores first and then doesn’t score again + £28.00 – £28.64 = £0.64 loss
Lewandowski scores first and then scores again anytime + £28.00 – £28.64 + £22.40 (80% extracted from £28.00 free bet) = £21.76 profit
Lewandowski doesn’t score first – £10.00 + £9.36 = £0.64 loss

So, if Lewandowski scores first and then scores again anytime, we’ll make a nice profit of £21.76. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a small loss of £0.64. Risking £0.64 to make a profit of £21.76, gives us effective odds of 35.00, so given that the odds on Lewandowski scoring two or more goals are only 3.80, this is a very profitable offer in the long run, even though we need him to score the first goal.

This offer is available on all twelve matches. It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bets on. I’ll update the following table with my actual selections once the matches have been played…

Fixture Selection Back Odds Lay Odds Qualifying Loss Potential Profit
Arsenal v Bayern Munich Robben 7.50 8.60 £1.43 £50.57
Napoli v Real Madrid Mertens 6.00 6.60 £1.06 £38.94
Barcelona v PSG Messi 3.70 4.60 £2.08 £19.52
Dortmund v Benfica Aubameyang 3.25 3.40 £0.58 £17.42
Apoel Nicosia v Anderlecht
FC Copenhagen v Ajax
FC Rostov v Man Utd
Celta Vigo v FK Krasnodar
FC Schalke 04 v Mönchengladbach
KAA Gent v KRC Genk
Lyon v Roma Lacazette 4.333 5.10 £1.66 £24.98
Olympiakos v Besiktas

Free bets will be credited within 12 hours of each match ending and will be valid for 48 hours. Free bet stakes are not returned with any winnings.

If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of any free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.