£3.39
Guaranteed Profit
£3.39
Actual Profit

Betfred Offer – Arsenal v Man Utd


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 02/12/2017 17:30

Arsenal host Man Utd in the Premier League today and you don’t want to miss this Betfred offer! Place a single bet of at least £10.00 on any pre-match market for Arsenal v Man Utd and Betfred will give us a £5.00 free bet to be used in play on the same match. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £3.39 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

Qualifying bets must be placed at odds of 1.50 (1/2) or greater between 09:00 and 17:15 today (Saturday 2nd December 2017), to be eligible.

Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Arsenal in the Match Result market.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Betfair as they have great liquidity and the site is really easy to use. Also, if we opt in, they are charging just 2% commission on Premier League Match Odds bets until 3rd January 2018.

We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.84…

Betfred Logo

Place £10.00 on Arsenal @ 2.40 = Potential profit of £14.00

Betfair logo

Lay £9.84 on Arsenal @ 2.46 = Potential liability of £14.36

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Arsenal win+ £14.00 – £14.36 = £0.36 loss
Arsenal don't win- £10.00 + £9.64 (£9.84 minus 2% commission) = £0.36 loss

So, regardless of the result of the match, we’ll lose £0.36 in qualifying for our £5.00 free in play bet.

Free Bet:

Our £5.00 free bet will be credited within 15 minutes of kick-off (17:30 on Saturday 2nd December 2017) and will be valid until 09:00 on Monday 4th December 2017.

It’s impossible to know what odds will be available until the match has kicked off but by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 75% out of the £5.00 free bet as cash, so £3.75. If we take into account our qualifying loss of £0.36, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £3.39!

Extracting profit from our free bet can be a little tricky when betting in play. One option is to wait until half-time, as the odds don’t fluctuate as much as when the game is live. If you place your free bet and then something happens in the game that changes the lay odds, it will affect your profit one way or the other.

Another option is to place it on 1-1, 2-1 or 3-1 whilst the score is at 0-0. By selecting a scoreline where both teams score, it reduces the risk of the odds fluctuating unfavourably.

Comments


  1. BrettP

    Can’t find this offer on Betfred? Has it been pulled?

  2. Jimbo

    Still there now 4.20pm.

  3. pasturecgh

    I’m can’t seem to get my £5 freebet on. Is there a specific market which we need to bet on?

    1. Matt

      Betfred suggest that the free bet can only be used in play on Arsenal v Man Utd. However, some guys have previously been able to place these Betfred free bets on any sport/market, prior to the deadline.

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