It’s not often I feature a Betsafe free bet offer but this one is worth writing home about! If the defending champions, Spain retain the World Cup, Betsafe will refund all losing bets with minimum stake of 10 EUR on the World Cup 2014 Winner market up to a maximum of 100 EUR as a free bet bonus. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £28.24 and here’s how…
We obviously can’t place our bet on Spain because we need to our bet to have lost in the event that Spain win the World Cup. This realistically leaves us with Brazil, Argentina or Germany because the other nations will cost too much to lay at the betting exchange due to their long odds. Having looked at the odds on offer, I’ve opted to place my bet on Argentina.
Step 1:
Place £100.00 on Argentina @ Betsafe @ 5.25 = Potential profit of £425.00
Lay £98.13 on Argentina @ Betfair @ 5.40 = Potential liability of £431.77
Step 2:
Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| Argentina win | +£425.00 – £431.77 = £6.77 loss |
| Spain win | -£100.00 + £93.22 + £85.00 (extract 85% from our £100.00 free bet bonus) = £78.22 profit |
| Neither wins | -£100.00 + £93.22 = £6.78 loss |
So as things stand we will make £78.22 profit if Spain win the World Cup. Unfortunately, we also stand to lose a maximum of £6.78 if Spain don’t retain the World Cup and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying Spain at Betfair.
Step 3:
As £6.78 is the maximum we stand to lose, we need to work out our lay stake by taking commission into consideration. £6.78 / 0.95 = £7.14.
Lay £7.14 on Spain @ 8.00 = Potential liability of £49.98
Let’s have a look at our resulting potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| Argentina win | -£6.77 + £6.78 = £0.01 profit |
| Spain win | +£78.22 – £49.98 = £28.24 profit |
| Neither wins | -£6.78 + £6.78 = £0.00 |
If Spain don’t win the World Cup, we will break even, so no harm done. If Spain do retain the World Cup, we will make a nice profit of £28.24!
If you’re wondering how we extract £85.00 from our £100.00 free bet bonus, let me explain. My usual Free Bet Strategy doesn’t apply with this offer and that’s because we are dealing with a free bet BONUS and not a bog standard free bet. The terms of this free bet bonus state that we just have to roll it over 3 times at minimum odds of 1.50. Instead of placing our free bet at high odds, we can just place our £100 free bet bonus on a selection at around 1.50 odds (we should be able to lay this at around 1.55). By punching these figures into the matched betting calculator we can see that this gives us a loss of just £5.00. If our free bet loses, then we have actually extracted £95.00 from our free bet bonus but if our free bet wins as expected, we can then follow the same process again until we have met the rollover requirement of £300. The worst case scenario is that our free bet bonus bet wins each time giving us a loss of £15.00 which leaves us with a profit of £85.00 from the free bet bonus.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.