Potential Profit
Actual Profit

BetVictor Swansea City v Cardiff City – Money-Back Special

Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 08/02/2014 17:30

I love the Money-Back Special offers from BetVictor because their odds are some of the most competitive around.  If a Red Card is shown at any time during the Swansea City v Cardiff City match, BetVictor will refund losing Correct Score, First/Last/Anytime Goalscorer, Scorecast & Half-Time/Full-Time bets as a FREE BET up to £25.00.  Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £18.81!  And here’s how…

Whenever I do these sort of offers, I always stick to the correct score market.  I find the liquidity at the betting exchange is far better than goalscorer markets and I just feel more comfortable here.

We need to select a correct score and hope it doesn’t come in, as only losing bets are refunded in the event of a red card being shown.  Having looked at the odds on offer, I’ve opted for a 2-2 draw.

Step 1:

Place £25.00 on 2-2 draw @ BetVictor @ 20.00 = Potential profit of £475.00.

Lay £25.06 on 2-2 draw @ Betfair @ 20.00 = Potential liability of £476.14.

Step 2:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the various outcomes…

2-2 draw

£475.00 – £476.14 = £1.14 loss

Not 2-2 draw with red card

-£25.00 + £23.81 + £20.00 (Assumes an 80% return from our £25.00 free bet) = £18.81 profit

Not 2-2 draw without red card

-£25.00 + £23.81 = £1.19 loss

So we will win £18.81 if the game doesn’t finish 2-2 and there is a red card!  If no red card is shown, we will make a maximum loss of £1.19, which I’m sure you’ll agree is a risk worth taking as the odds of a red card being shown are around 3.30.


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