£17.42
Potential Profit
£-2.58
Actual Profit

Birmingham v West Brom Offer – SportPesa


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 14/09/2018 19:45

It’s Birmingham v West Brom in the Championship on Friday and SportPesa are getting in on the action! Simply place a bet on any market for Birmingham v West Brom and if Dwight Gayle scores, SportPesa will give us a bonus equal to 50% of our stake, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £17.42 and here’s how…

Banner showing the Birmingham v West Brom offer from SportPesa

Key Terms:

  • The minimum and maximum qualifying stakes are £5.00 and £50.00 respectively.
  • Qualifying bets must be placed between 10:00 on Wednesday 12th September 2018 and 19:45 (kick-off) on Friday 14th September 2018.
  • We must place our bet at odds of 2.00 (evens) or greater.

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on West Brom in the ‘1X2 Full Time‘ market.

At the time of writing, laying our bet at Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss.

We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £48.39…

SportPesa logo

Place £50.00 on West Brom @ 2.40 = Potential profit of £70.00

Smarkets logo

Lay £48.39 on West Brom @ 2.50 = Potential liability of £72.58

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

West Brom win+ £70.00 – £72.58 = £2.58 loss
West Brom don't win- £50.00 + £47.42 (£48.39 minus 2% commission) = £2.58 loss

So, regardless of the outcome, we’ll lose £2.58 in qualifying for our potential bonus.

Bonus:

If Dwight Gayle scores anytime for West Brom, we’ll receive a £25.00 bonus within 48 hours of our qualifying bet being settled. Bonuses will be valid for 5 days.

The bonus stake is not included in any returns, so we can treat it exactly the same as a stake not returned free bet.

By using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 80% cash from our £25.00 bonus, so £20.00. If we take into account our qualifying loss of £2.58, this gives us a potential profit of £17.42 on this SportPesa offer!

Risking £2.58 to make a profit of £17.42 gives us effective odds of 6.75. So, given that Dwight Gayle is odds of just 2.50 (6/4) to score anytime, this is a profitable offer in the long run.

* The match was drawn 1-1 and Dwight Gayle failed to score, resulting in a loss of £2.58 on this SportPesa offer. *

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