Blackburn v Aston Villa Offer – SportPesa

It’s Blackburn v Aston Villa in the Championship on Saturday and SportPesa are getting in on the action! Simply place a bet on either Blackburn or Aston Villa to win and if the game is a draw, SportPesa will refund our stake as a bonus, up to a maximum of £20.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £14.47 and here’s how…

Key Terms:

  • The minimum stake is £5.00.
  • Qualifying bets must be placed between 10:00 on Thursday 13th September 2018 and 17:30 (kick-off) on Saturday 15th September 2018.
  • We must place our bet at odds of 2.00 (evens) or greater.

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

It’s entirely up to you which team you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Aston Villa.

At the time of writing, laying our bet at Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss.

We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £18.85…

SportPesa logo

Place £20.00 on Aston Villa @ 2.95 = Potential profit of £39.00

Smarkets logo

Lay £18.85 on Aston Villa @ 3.15 = Potential liability of £40.52

Outcomes:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Aston Villa win + £39.00 – £40.52 = £1.52 loss
Draw – £20.00 + £18.47 + £16.00 (extract 80% from £20.00 bonus) = £14.47 profit
Blackburn win – £20.00 + £18.47 = £1.53 loss

So, if the game is a draw, we’ll have made a profit of £14.47. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a maximum loss of £1.53. Risking £1.53 to make a profit of £14.47 gives us effective odds of 10.46. So, given that the odds are just 3.20 (11/5) for the game to be drawn, this a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, our £20.00 bonus will be credited within 48 hours and will be valid for 5 days.

The bonus stake is not included in any returns, so we can treat it exactly the same as a stake not returned free bet.

If you’re not sure how to extract 80% cash from a free bet, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

* The match was drawn 1-1, resulting in a profit of £14.47 on this SportPesa offer. *

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.