West Ham United face Newcastle United tonight and BoyleSports are running a great little offer. If 5 or more yellow cards are shown, BoyleSports will refund losing First/Last/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast bets up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed minimum profit of £15.90 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Having looked at the odds on offer, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on a 1-0 West Ham win.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges. We can calculate our lay stakes using the matched betting calculator.
BoyleSports
Place £25.00 on 1-0 West Ham @ 8.00 = Potential profit of £175.00
Lay £21.32 on 1-0 West Ham @ 9.40 = Potential liability of £179.10
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the three outcomes…
| 1-0 West Ham | +£175.00 – £179.10 = £4.10 loss |
| Not 1-0 West Ham and 5 or more yellow cards | -£25.00 + £20.90 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £15.90 profit |
| Not 1-0 West Ham and less than 5 yellow cards | -£25.00 + £20.90 = £4.10 loss |
So, if West Ham don’t win 1-0 and 5 or more yellow cards are shown, we will make a nice profit of £15.90. Any other outcome and we’ll lose £4.10. Risking £4.10 to win £15.90, gives us effective odds of 4.88. Given that the odds of ‘Over 4.5 Cards’ are 2.20, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £100,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.