The Championship 2016/17 season kicks off tonight and you don’t want to miss this Bwin offer! Simply place a pre-match bet on Newcastle United to beat Fulham (1×2 market) and if Fulham win the game, Bwin will give us our money back as a free bet, up to a maximum of £50.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £7.42 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed on Newcastle to win (1×2 market) between 00:00 and 19:45 today (Friday 5th August 2016), to be eligible.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £49.02…
Place £50.00 on Newcastle @ 2.00 = Potential profit of £50.00
Lay £49.02 on Newcastle @ 2.06 = Potential liability of £51.96
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Newcastle win | + £50.00 – £51.96 = £1.96 loss |
| Fulham win | – £50.00 + £48.04 + £40.00 (extract 80% from stake refund) = £38.04 profit |
| Draw | – £50.00 + £48.04 = £1.96 loss |
So, as things stand, if Fulham beat Newcastle, we will make a nice profit of £38.04. If Newcastle win or the game is drawn, we’ll have made a loss of £1.96.
By placing an extra lay bet on Fulham to win, we can actually guarantee ourselves a profit on any outcome. In order to work out our lay stake, we just need to divide £40.00 (the amount we expect to extract from our £50.00 free bet refund) by 4.18 (lay odds – 0.02 (to account for the 2% commission)) which gives us £9.57…
Lay £9.57 on Fulham @ 4.20 = Potential liability of £30.62
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Newcastle win | – £1.96 + £9.38 = £7.42 profit |
| Fulham win | £38.04 – £30.62 = £7.42 profit |
| Draw | – £1.96 + £9.38 = £7.42 profit |
So, regardless of the result of the match, we will make a guaranteed profit of £7.42 on this Bwin offer!
Free bets will be credited within 48 hours and will be valid for 7 days. The free bet stake will not be returned with any winnings.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £50.00 free bet refund, please see my free bet strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £100,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.