The Carabao Cup 2nd Round gets underway on Tuesday and SportPesa are getting in on the action! Simply place a bet on the Outright Winner and if Man City lift the cup, SportPesa will refund losing stakes as a bonus, up to a maximum of £50.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £35.68 and here’s how…
Key Terms:
- The minimum qualifying stake is £5.00.
- Qualifying bets must be placed between 10:00 on Tuesday 28th August 2018 and 19:45 on Tuesday 25th September 2018.
- We must place our bet at odds of 2.00 (evens) or greater.
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
It’s entirely up to you which team you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Liverpool.
At the time of writing, laying our bet at Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss.
Just bear in mind that our exchange funds will be tied up until our team gets knocked out or the competition ends on Sunday 24th February 2019. The alternative is to not lay our bet and just let the qualifying bet run.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £46.62…
Place £50.00 on Liverpool @ 8.00 = Potential profit of £350.00
Lay £46.62 on Liverpool @ 8.60 = Potential liability of £354.31
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Liverpool win | + £350.00 – £354.31 = £4.31 loss |
| Man City win | – £50.00 + £45.68 + £40.00 (extract 80% from £50.00 bonus) = £35.68 profit |
| Another team wins | – £50.00 + £45.68 (£46.62 minus 2% commission) = £4.32 loss |
So, we’ll make a nice profit of £35.68 if Man City lift the cup and we stand to lose a maximum of £4.32 on any other outcome. Risking £4.32 to make a profit of £35.68 gives us effective odds of 9.26. So, given that Man City are odds of 5.50 (9/2) to lift the cup, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, our bonus will be credited within 48 hours of our qualifying bet being settled and will be valid for 5 days.
The bonus stake is not included in any returns, so we can treat it exactly the same as a stake not returned free bet. If you’re unsure how to extract 80% cash from a £50.00 stake not returned bonus, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* Man City won the Carabao Cup 2018/19, resulting in a profit of £35.68 on this SportPesa offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.