Chelsea v Southampton Offer – TLCBet

It’s Chelsea v Southampton in the FA Cup Semi-Finals today and you don’t want to miss this TLCBet offer! Simply place a £15.00 pre-match bet on any Chelsea v Southampton market and if the game is settled in extra time or penalties, TLCBet will give us a £10.00 bonus! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £6.54 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

To qualify, we must place a pre-match bet of exactly £15.00, at odds of 2.00 (evens) or greater, on any Chelsea v Southampton market.

Qualifying bets must be placed between 10:00 on Friday 20th April 2018 and 15:00 (kick-off) on Sunday 22nd April 2018, to be eligible.

It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Chelsea in the ‘1X2 1st Half market.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Betfair as they have great liquidity and the site is really easy to use.

We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £14.78…

TLCBet logo

Place £15.00 on Chelsea (1st Half) @ 2.00 = Potential profit of £15.00

Betfair logo

Lay £14.78 on Chelsea (Half-Time) @ 2.08 = Potential liability of £15.96

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Chelsea lead at half-time + £15.00 – £15.96 = £0.96 loss
Chelsea don’t lead at half-time – £15.00 + £14.04 (£14.78 minus 5% commission) = £0.96 loss

So, regardless of the half-time score, we’ll lose £0.96 in qualifying for our potential £10.00 bonus.

Bonus:

If the match is a draw after 90 minutes and extra-time is required, TLCBet will give us a £10.00 bonus. By using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 75% cash from our £10.00 bonus, so £7.50. If we take into account our qualifying loss of £0.96, we stand to make a potential profit of £6.54 on this TLCBet offer.

Risking £0.96 to make a profit of £6.54 gives us effective odds of 7.81. So, given that the odds are just 4.50 for the game to be drawn, this is a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, our bonus will be credited within 48 hours and will be valid for 5 days. The bonus is effectively a free bet, given that the bonus stake is not included with any returns.

* Chelsea won the match 2-0 after being level 0-0 at half-time, resulting in a loss of £0.96 on this TLCBet offer. *

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.