£3.85
Guaranteed Profit
£3.87
Actual Profit

Croatia v England Offer – Betfred


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 11/07/2018 19:00

It’s Croatia v England tonight and you don’t want to miss this Betfred ‘Bet £10, Get £5’ offer! Place a single bet of at least £10.00 on any pre-match market for Croatia v England and Betfred will give us a £5.00 free bet to be used in play on the same match. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £3.85 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

Qualifying bets must be placed at odds of 1.50 (1/2) or greater between 17:00 on Tuesday 10th July 2018 and 18:45 on Wednesday 11th July 2018, to be eligible.

Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on a Draw in the Match Result market.

At the time of writing, laying our bet at Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss.

We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £10.06…

Betfred Logo

Place £10.00 on a draw @ 3.20 = Potential profit of £22.00

Smarkets logo

Lay £10.06 on a draw @ 3.20 = Potential liability of £22.13

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Draw+ £22.00 – £22.13 = £0.13 loss
Not a draw- £10.00 + £9.85 (£10.06 minus 2% commission) = £0.15 loss

So, regardless of the result of the match, we’ll lose a maximum of £0.15 in qualifying for our £5.00 free bet.

Free Bet:

Our £5.00 free bet will be credited by 19:15 on Wednesday 11th July 2018 to use on Croatia v England (19:00) and will be valid until 09:00 on Thursday 12th July 2018.

By using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 80% out of the £5.00 free bet as cash, so £4.00. If we take into account our maximum qualifying loss of £0.15, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £3.85 on this Betfred offer!

* The match was drawn 1-1 after 90 minutes, resulting in a profit of £3.87 on this Betfred offer. *

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