It’s Croatia v England in the UEFA Nations League on Friday and you don’t want to miss this Money Back Special from Paddy Power. Simply place a bet on selected markets and if Harry Kane scores, Paddy Power will refund all losing bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £6.50 and here’s how…
Key Terms:
- Qualifying bets must be placed between 12:00 on Monday 8th October 2018 and 19:45 (kick-off) on Friday 12th October 2018.
- The eligible markets are First/Last/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score and WhatOddsPaddy.
- If our first bet loses and Harry Kane scores, Paddy Power will refund our stake as a free bet, up to £10.00.
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bet on. Our best option is likely to be the Correct Score market. Ideally, we should select a scoreline that doesn’t see England scoring, but it depends on the odds that are available.
At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional odds for 1-0 Croatia (13/2) in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with an actual selection after the match.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator.
Aim to lose no more than £1.50 on our qualifying bet
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| 1-0 Croatia | + £65.00 – £66.50 = £1.50 loss |
| Not 1-0 Croatia and Kane scores | – £10.00 + £8.50 + £8.00 (extract 80% from our £10.00 free bet) = £6.50 profit |
| Not 1-0 Croatia and Kane doesn’t score | – £10.00 + £8.50 = £1.50 loss |
So, we’ll make a nice profit of £6.50 if Croatia don’t win 1-0 and Harry Kane scores and we stand to lose around £1.50 on any other outcome. Risking £1.50 to make a profit of £6.50 gives us effective odds of 5.33. So, given that Harry Kane is odds of just 2.30 (13/10) to score anytime, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, free bets will be credited within two hours of the match ending and will be valid for 7 days on football markets.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of a £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* ‘0-0 draw’ was available at back odds of 7.50 and lay odds of 8.60. The match was drawn 0-0, resulting in a loss of £1.42 on this Paddy Power offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.