It’s Croatia v England on Wednesday night and you don’t want to miss this Money Back Special from Paddy Power. Simply place a bet on selected markets and if Harry Kane scores in 90 minutes, Paddy Power will refund all losing bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £6.35 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed pre-match. The eligible markets are First/Last/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score and WhatOddsPaddy.
For our qualifying bet, we need to back and lay a selection of our choice. Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on a 0-0 draw (6/1) in the Correct Score market.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator.
Aim to lose no more than £1.65 on our qualifying bet
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| 0-0 draw | + £60.00 – £61.65 = £1.65 loss |
| Not a 0-0 draw and Kane scores | – £10.00 + £8.35 + £8.00 (extract 80% from our £10.00 free bet) = £6.35 profit |
| Not a 0-0 draw and Kane doesn’t score | – £10.00 + £8.35 = £1.65 loss |
So, we’ll make a nice profit of £6.35 if Harry Kane scores in 90 minutes and we stand to lose around £1.65 on any other outcome. Risking £1.65 to make a profit of £6.35 gives us effective odds of 4.85. So, given that Kane is odds of just 2.375 (11/8) to score anytime, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, free bets will be credited within two hours of the match ending and will be valid for 7 days on football markets.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of a £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* The match was drawn 1-1 after 90 minutes and Kane didn’t score, resulting in a loss of £1.65 on this Paddy Power offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.