Guaranteed Profit
Actual Profit

Croatia v England Offer – SportPesa

Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 12/10/2018 19:45

It’s Croatia v England in the UEFA Nations League on Friday and you don’t want to miss this Money Back Special from SportPesa! Place a bet on the ‘1X2’ market for Croatia v England and if our bet loses, SportPesa will refund 25% of our stake as a bonus, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £8.14 and here’s how…

Banner showing the Croatia v England offer from SportPesa

Key Terms:

  • The minimum and maximum qualifying stakes are £25.00 and £100.00 respectively.
  • Qualifying bets must be placed between 10:00 on Thursday 11th October 2018 and 19:45 (kick-off) on Friday 12th October 2018.
  • We must place our bet on the ‘1X2‘ market at odds of 2.00 (evens) or greater.
  • If our bet loses, SportPesa will refund 25% of our stake as a bonus.

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

Losing stakes are partially refunded as a bonus, so this is effectively a risk-free bet offer.

It’s entirely up to you which selection you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on a Draw.

At the time of writing, laying our bet with Smarkets gives us the biggest guaranteed profit.

We can calculate our lay stake by using the ‘Risk-Free Bet‘ setting on my matched betting calculator. We can enter £20.00 as our ‘Cashback’ figure as this is the amount we can expect to extract (80%) from our £25.00 bonus refund, should our bet lose…

Select bet type

Back Bet (Bookie)


Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
If back (bookie) bet wins
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
= £

Total profit: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £89.94…

SportPesa logo

Place £100.00 on a draw @ 3.15 = Potential profit of £215.00

Smarkets logo

Lay £89.94 on a draw @ 3.30 = Potential liability of £206.86


Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Draw+ £215.00 – £206.86 = £8.14 profit
Not a draw- £100.00 + £88.14 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 bonus) = £8.14 profit

So, regardless of the outcome, we’ll make a guaranteed profit of £8.14 on this SportPesa offer!

If our selection loses, our bonus will be credited within 48 hours of our qualifying bet being settled and will be valid for 5 days.

The bonus stake is not included in any returns, so we can treat it exactly the same as a stake not returned free bet.

If you’re unsure how to extract around 80% cash from a free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

* The match was drawn 0-0, resulting in a profit of £8.14 on this SportPesa offer. *

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