£11.09
Potential Profit
£11.09
Actual Profit

Croatia v England Offer – SportPesa


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 11/07/2018 19:00

It’s Croatia v England on Wednesday night and you don’t want to miss this SportPesa offer! If England don’t qualify for the World Cup 2018 Final, SportPesa will refund losing bets on all markets as a bonus, up to a maximum of £15.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £11.09 and here’s how…

Banner showing the Croatia v England offer from SportPesa

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

Qualifying bets must be placed pre-match at odds of 2.00 (evens) or greater between 10:00 on Monday 9th July 2018 and 19:00 (kick-off) on Wednesday 11th July 2018, to be eligible.

It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on England in the 1X2 Full Time market.

At the time of writing, laying our bet at Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £14.38…

SportPesa logo

Place £15.00 on England @ 2.30 = Potential profit of £19.50

Smarkets logo

Lay £14.38 on England @ 2.42 = Potential liability of £20.41

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

England win in 90 mins+ £19.50 – £20.41 = £0.91 loss
England don't win in 90 mins and fail to qualify- £15.00 + £14.09 + £12.00 (extract 80% cash from £15.00 bonus) = £11.09 profit
England don't win in 90 mins and qualify- £15.00 + £14.09 = £0.91 loss

So, if England fail to qualify, we’ll make a nice profit of £11.09. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a loss of £0.91. Risking £0.91 to make a profit of £11.09, gives us effective odds of 13.19. So, given that the odds are just 1.556 (5/9) for England to qualify, this is a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, our bonus will be credited within 48 hours of our qualifying bet being settled and will be valid for 5 days. The bonus stake is not returned with any winnings, so we can treat it the same way as a stake not returned free bet.

* The match was drawn 1-1 after 90 minutes and Croatia won 2-1 after extra-time, resulting in a profit of £11.09 on this SportPesa offer. *

Comments


  1. MattchedBet

    I bet £15 on England and laid as a £12 cashback for a guaranteed £5 profit England/Belgium win and break even on draw. (£1.50 on draw to cover if England draw but qualify in extra time/penalties, meaning no £15 bonus)

    1. Matt

      That all seems fine. Another option is to just place an extra lay bet on ‘Croatia to qualify’, for a guaranteed profit of around £3.75 on any outcome.

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