England host Lithuania in World Cup 2018 Qualifying this evening and you don’t want to miss this Ladbrokes offer! Simply place a bet on England v Lithuania and if Lithuania score, Ladbrokes will refund losing Correct Score, First Goalscorer and Half-Time/Full-Time bets as a free bet, up to £25.00 per market. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a risk-free potential profit of £3.88 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed between 08:00 on Thursday 23rd March 2017 and 17:00 (kick-off) on Sunday 26th March 2017, to be eligible.
We need to place our qualifying bet on a Correct Score selection that doesn’t see Lithuania scoring. This ensures that if Lithuania score, we’ll automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost.
It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on 3-0 to England.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £20.90…
Place £25.00 on 3-0 England @ 5.50 = Potential profit of £112.50
Lay £20.90 on 3-0 England @ 6.60 = Potential liability of £117.04
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| 3-0 England | + £112.50 – £117.04 = £4.54 loss |
| Not 3-0 England and Lithuania score | – £25.00 + £20.48 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £15.48 profit |
| Not 3-0 England and Lithuania don’t score | – £25.00 + £20.48 = £4.52 loss |
So, as things stand, if Lithuania score, we’ll make a profit of £15.48. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a maximum loss of £4.54.
We can actually make this offer risk-free by placing an extra lay bet on England not keeping a clean sheet. To work out our lay stake, we just need to divide our maximum potential loss of £4.54 by 0.98 (to account for the 2% commission) which gives us a lay stake of £4.64…
Lay £4.64 on ‘ENG Clean Sheet – No’ @ 3.50 = Potential liability of £11.60
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| 3-0 England | – £4.54 + £4.54 = £0.00 |
| Not 3-0 England and Lithuania score | + £15.48 – £11.60 = £3.88 profit |
| Not 3-0 England and Lithuania don’t score | – £4.52 + £4.54 = £0.02 profit |
So, if Lithuania don’t score, we’ll have broken even and there’s no harm done. If they do score, however, we’ll have made a nice risk-free profit of £3.88.
If Lithuania score, our free bet will be credited within 24 hours and will be valid for 7 days.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% cash from a £25.00 free bet, please see my free bet strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
NOTE: If you wish, you can overlay on England not keeping a clean sheet to guarantee yourself a small profit on any outcome. To calculate your overlay stake, just divide £20.00 (the amount we expect to extract from our £25.00 free bet refund) by the ‘ENG Clean Sheet – No’ lay odds (minus 0.02 to account for the 2% commission at Smarkets).
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.