Another big match brings about another Ladbrokes offer not to be missed. If both teams score in the game between Arsenal and Manchester United, Ladbrokes will refund losing Match Odds (WDW), Correct Score, First Goalscorer and Half Time/Full Time bets up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed minimum profit of £5.48 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Manchester United to win.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges. We can calculate our lay stakes using the matched betting calculator.
Place £25.00 on Man Utd @ 3.80 = Potential profit of £70.00
Lay £23.87 on Man Utd @ 4.00 = Potential liability of £71.61
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the three outcomes…
| Man Utd win and both teams score | +£70.00 – £71.61 = £1.61 loss |
| Man Utd win and keep a clean sheet | +£70.00 – £71.61 = £1.61 loss |
| Man Utd don’t win and both teams score | -£25.00 + £23.39 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £18.39 profit |
| Man Utd don’t win and someone keeps a clean sheet | -£25.00 + £23.39 = £1.61 loss |
As things stand, if Man Utd don’t win and both teams score, we will make a profit of £18.39, but we’ll lose £1.61 on any other outcome. We now need to lay both teams to score at odds of 1.99. To work out our lay stake, we need to divide £20.00 by (lay odds minus 0.02), so £20.00 divided by 1.97 gives us a lay stake of £10.15.
Lay £10.15 on Both Teams to Score @ 1.99 = Potential liability of £10.05
Let’s have a look at our current profit/loss for the three outcomes…
| Man Utd win and both teams score | -£1.61 – £10.05 = £11.66 loss |
| Man Utd win and keep a clean sheet | -£1.61 + £9.95 = £8.34 profit |
| Man Utd don’t win and both teams score | £18.39 – £10.05 = £8.34 profit |
| Man Utd don’t win and someone keeps a clean sheet | -£1.61 + £9.95 = £8.34 profit |
So now as things stand, as long as the game doesn’t see Man Utd win with both teams scoring, we will make a minimum profit of £8.34, otherwise we’ll lose £11.66. We now need to place a back bet on Man Utd winning and both teams scoring at odds of 7.00. To work out our stake, we need to divide £20.00 by 7.00, which gives us a back stake of £2.86.
Place £2.86 on ‘Man Utd to win and both teams to score’ @ 7.00 = Potential profit of £17.16
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the three outcomes…
| Man Utd win and both teams score | -£11.66 + £17.16 = £5.50 profit |
| Man Utd win and keep a clean sheet | £8.34 – £2.86 = £5.48 profit |
| Man Utd don’t win and both teams score | £8.34 – £2.86 = £5.48 profit |
| Man Utd don’t win and someone keeps a clean sheet | £8.34 – £2.86 = £5.48 profit |
So regardless of the result of the match, we will make a guaranteed minimum profit of £5.48 on this offer.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.