Ladbrokes Offer – Chelsea v Man City

Man City are the visitors to Stamford Bridge on Saturday and you don’t want to miss this Ladbrokes offer. Simply place a £5.00+ single bet on the 90 minute Match Betting market for Chelsea v Man City and if our team wins the match and scores 3 or more goals, Ladbrokes will double our winnings up to £50.00, in free bets! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £33.38 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

Qualifying bets must be placed between 06:00 on Friday 29th September 2017 and 17:30 (kick-off) on Saturday 30th September 2017, to be eligible.

To qualify, we must place a £5.00+ single bet on the 90 minute win-draw-win market. If our team wins the match and scores 3 or more goals, Ladbrokes will double our winnings in free bets.

The maximum free bet is £50.00 per customer and this will be credited within 24 hours. Free bets will be valid for 4 days and free bet stakes are not included in any returns.

It’s entirely up to you which team you go for. At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional odds for Chelsea in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with my actual selection after the match.

In order to work out our back stake, we need to divide £50.00 by 1.45 (back odds minus 1.00). This gives us a back stake of £34.48. It’s best that we stick to round numbers when placing our qualifying bet, so I’ll be staking £30.00 instead.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £29.17…

Ladbrokes logo

Place £30.00 on Chelsea @ 2.45 = Potential profit of £43.50

smarkets whiteLay £29.17 on Chelsea @ 2.54 = Potential liability of £44.92

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Chelsea win the match but don’t score 3+ goals + £43.50 – £44.92 = £1.42 loss
Chelsea win the match and score 3+ goals + £43.50 – £44.92 + £34.80 (80% extracted from £43.50 free bet) = £33.38 profit
Chelsea don’t win the match – £30.00 + £28.58 = £1.42 loss

So, if Chelsea win the match and score 3+ goals, we’ll make a nice profit of £33.38. Any other outcome and we’ll lose £1.42. Risking £1.42 to make a profit of £33.38, gives us effective odds of 24.51. So, given that Chelsea are odds of around 4.80 to score 3 or more goals, this is a profitable offer in the long run.

* I actually placed my £30.00 qualifying bet on Chelsea at back odds of 2.60 and lay odds of 2.82. Chelsea lost the match 1-0, meaning I made a loss of £2.70 on this Ladbrokes offer. *

Got a question?
Leave me a comment below

I usually respond within 24 hours.

Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.