Ladbrokes Offer – FA Cup Underdog Free Bets

January 7, 2017 / Football / 20 Comments

Kick-off time (GMT): 07/01/2017 : 12:30

Potential profit
£70.00+
My profit £25.87

It’s the FA Cup 3rd Round and you don’t want to miss this Ladbrokes offer! Back a team from a lower league to win against higher division opponents in any FA Cup 3rd Round match and if the game ends in a draw, Ladbrokes will refund our stake as a free bet, up to £25.00, to back the same team to win the replay. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us an overall potential profit of £70.00+ and here’s how…

ladbrokes-offer-fa-cup-3rd-round

Qualifying Bets:

This weekend’s eligible matches, with the underdogs in bold, are as follows…

Fixture Kick-Off Date
Man Utd v Reading 12:30 Saturday 7th January 2017
Barrow v Rochdale 15:00 Saturday 7th January 2017
Blackpool v Barnsley 15:00 Saturday 7th January 2017
Bolton v Crystal Palace 15:00 Saturday 7th January 2017
Brentford v Eastleigh 15:00 Saturday 7th January 2017
Brighton v MK Dons 15:00 Saturday 7th January 2017
Bristol City v Fleetwood 15:00 Saturday 7th January 2017
Huddersfield v Port Vale 15:00 Saturday 7th January 2017
Ipswich v Lincoln 15:00 Saturday 7th January 2017
Milwall v Bournemouth 15:00 Saturday 7th January 2017
Norwich v Southampton 15:00 Saturday 7th January 2017
Rotherham v Oxford 15:00 Saturday 7th January 2017
Stoke v Wolves 15:00 Saturday 7th January 2017
Sutton v Wimbledon 15:00 Saturday 7th January 2017
Watford v Burton 15:00 Saturday 7th January 2017
West Brom v Derby 15:00 Saturday 7th January 2017
Wycombe v Stourbridge 15:00 Saturday 7th January 2017
Preston v Arsenal 17:30 Saturday 7th January 2017
Liverpool v Plymouth 13:30 Sunday 8th January 2017
Chelsea v Peterborough 15:00 Sunday 8th January 2017
Middlesbrough v Sheff Wed 15:00 Sunday 8th January 2017
Spurs v Aston Villa 16:00 Sunday 8th January 2017
Cambridge v Leeds 19:45 Monday 9th January 2017

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

This offer applies to any bets placed on underdogs (90 minute Match Result market) from 08:00 on Wednesday 4th January 2017 until kick-off in the respective match.

If our selected underdog manages to draw against their higher division opponents, Ladbrokes will refund our stake as a free bet (up to £25.00) to bet on the underdog winning the replay.

The underdogs should be long odds to win any replays, so extracting 70% cash from our free bet shouldn’t be too much of an issue.

It’s entirely up to you how many underdogs you bet on, but I’ll be sticking to four or five.

At the time of writing the lay odds are pretty poor, so I’ll use fictional odds in the following example and I’ll update the table at the bottom of the post with my actual selections after the matches have been played.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…


Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Adjust your lay stake

Min £
Max £

Lay stake required: £

Bookie
Exchange
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
= £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back
bet wins
= £
If lay
bet wins
= £

Total profit:

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins:
If lay (exchange) bet wins:

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins:
If lay (exchange) bet wins:

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £23.87…

ladbrokes logo

Place £25.00 on Barrow @ 3.80 = Potential profit of £70.00

smarkets whiteLay £23.87 on Barrow @ 4.00 = Potential liability of £71.61

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Barrow win + £70.00 – £71.61 = £1.61 loss
Draw - £25.00 + £23.39 + £17.50 (extract 70% from £25.00 free bet) = £15.89 profit
Rochdale win - £25.00 + £23.39 (£23.87 minus 2% commission) = £1.61 loss

So, if Barrow (underdogs) earn a draw, we’ll make a nice profit of £15.89. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a loss of £1.61. Risking £1.61 to make a profit of £15.89, gives us effective odds of 10.87. Given that the odds are 3.60 for the game to be drawn, this is a profitable offer in the long run.

This offer is available on all fixtures shown at the top of the post. It’s entirely up to you which underdogs you go for. I’ll update the following table with my selections throughout the weekend…

Fixture Back Odds Lay Odds Qualifying Loss Potential Profit
Bolton v Crystal Palace 3.10 3.40 £2.53 £14.97
Norwich v Southampton 3.10 3.30 £1.84 £15.66
Rotherham v Oxford 2.875 3.10 £2.13 £15.37
Cambridge v Leeds 4.00 4.40 £2.63 £14.87

So, we’ll lose £1.50-£3.00 on each underdog that doesn’t earn a draw, but with £14.00+ profit available on each match, this offer is well worth a go.

If you’re not sure how to extract 70% cash from a free bet, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

Share this

20 Comments

  1. Bob (bobster)

    January 7, 2017
    / Reply

    Could we not do something here with laying the draw to guarantee profit?

    • Bob (bobster)

      January 7, 2017
      / Reply

      Actually I guess it works out quite a small profit in you lock in - but can go risk free by laying the QL / 0.98

      • Micky

        January 7, 2017
        / Reply

        Won't this mean you lose out if the team you back wins?

        • Matt

          Matt

          January 7, 2017
          / Reply

          No Micky. If your selection wins, you'll win the extra lay bet you placed on the draw.

          • Jim

            January 7, 2017
            / Reply

            Does that mean that the QL gets even bigger when it's a draw?

            • Matt

              Matt

              January 8, 2017
              / Reply

              Yes it does Jim. It's a way of guaranteeing a small profit regardless of the outcome.

  2. Micky

    January 7, 2017
    / Reply

    Why not do all of these? Do you think backing to many here gives you a good chance of being gubbed?

    • Bob (bobster)

      January 7, 2017
      / Reply

      Yes lol - DO NOT do all of them! As even if you hit them all, they'd probably gub you before giving you any free bets

      • Micky

        January 7, 2017
        / Reply

        OK. I'll resist temptation on stick to 4 or 5. Cheers.

  3. Matt

    January 7, 2017
    / Reply

    It seems very optimistic to expect an 80% return on your free bets here if they have to be placed on your team winning the rematch. I've layed the draws assuming a return of about £16 on the free bets and only five of the matches seem worth it to me at the moment

  4. Jim

    January 7, 2017
    / Reply

    So if we get a freebet, do we have to back the team in the replay again?

    • Matt

      Matt

      January 7, 2017
      / Reply

      It seems that way Jim. It's an offer we haven't seen before so it's a little unknown as to how the free bets will work. It looks like they'll credit them and then we'll have to place them on the underdog to win the replay.

  5. Flintstone

    January 7, 2017
    / Reply

    I contacted Ladbrokes chat line & they told me that the free bet only applied to the first bet staked. Be careful about this

  6. mark smith

    January 7, 2017
    / Reply

    Won 2 out of 3. Does anyone know when the free bets are credited?

    • Darren

      January 7, 2017
      / Reply

      16th jan it said.

    • Jim

      January 7, 2017
      / Reply

      It says that the free bets can be redeemed from 16th January, so I think that's when you will see it in your account.

  7. swanst1991

    January 9, 2017
    / Reply

    come on cambridge!

  8. Bob (bobster)

    January 10, 2017
    / Reply

    Cambridge game odds came down quite a bit - I managed to overlay the draw for a guaranteed 3/4 quid on any outcome

    • Matt

      Matt

      January 11, 2017
      / Reply

      Well played Bob!

  9. Micky MB

    January 13, 2017
    / Reply

    Looks like the free bets have landed. I picked up 3 out of 4!


Get involved!

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked with *.

Leave a Reply