Ladbrokes Offer – Man Utd v Liverpool

January 12, 2017 / Football / 13 Comments

Kick-off time (GMT): 15/01/2017 : 16:00

Potential profit
£11.62
My profit £6.04

Man Utd host Liverpool on Sunday and you don’t want to miss this Ladbrokes offer! Simply place a bet on Man Utd v Liverpool and if the game is a draw, Ladbrokes will refund losing Correct Score, First Goalscorer and Half-Time/Full-Time bets as a free bet, up to £25.00 per market. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a risk-free potential profit of £11.62 and here’s how…

man utd v liverpool - ladbrokes offer

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

Qualifying bets must be placed between 08:00 on Wednesday 11th January 2017 and 16:00 (kick-off) on Sunday 15th January 2017, to be eligible.

We need to place our qualifying bet on a Correct Score or Half-Time/Full-Time selection that doesn’t see the match being drawn. This ensures that if the match is drawn, we’ll automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost.

It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bet on. At the time of writing, the lay odds are poor, so I’ll use fictional Half-Time/Full-Time odds in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with my actual selection after the match.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…


Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Adjust your lay stake

Min £
Max £

Lay stake required: £

Bookie
Exchange
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
= £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back
bet wins
= £
If lay
bet wins
= £

Total profit:

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins:
If lay (exchange) bet wins:

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins:
If lay (exchange) bet wins:

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £23.10…

ladbrokes logo

Place £25.00 on Man Utd/Man Utd @ 3.40 = Potential profit of £60.00

smarkets whiteLay £23.10 on Man Utd/Man Utd @ 3.70 = Potential liability of £62.36

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Man Utd/Man Utd + £60.00 – £62.36 = £2.36 loss
Not Man Utd/Man Utd and match is a draw - £25.00 + £22.64 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £17.64 profit
Not Man Utd/Man Utd and match isn't a draw - £25.00 + £22.64 = £2.36 loss

So, as things stand, if the match is a draw, we’ll make a profit of £17.64. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a loss of £2.36.

We can actually make this offer risk-free by placing an extra lay bet on the match being a draw. To work out our lay stake, we just need to divide our potential loss of £2.36 by 0.98 (to account for the 2% commission) which gives us a lay stake of £2.41…

smarkets whiteLay £2.41 on a draw @ 3.50 = Potential liability of £6.02

Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Man Utd/Man Utd - £2.36 + £2.36 = £0.00
Not Man Utd/Man Utd and match is a draw + £17.64 – £6.02 = £11.62 profit
Not Man Utd/Man Utd and match isn't a draw - £2.36 + £2.36 = £0.00

So, if the game isn’t drawn, we’ll have broken even and there’s no harm done. If, however, the game is drawn, we’ll have made a nice risk-free profit of £11.62.

If you wish, you can overlay on the draw to guarantee yourself a small profit on any outcome. To calculate your overlay stake on the draw, just divide £20.00 (the amount we expect to extract from our £25.00 free bet refund) by the draw lay odds (minus 0.02 to account for the 2% commission at Smarkets).

If the game is drawn, our free bet will be credited within 24 hours and will be valid for 7 days.

If you’re unsure how to extract 80% cash from a £25.00 free bet, please see my free bet strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

NOTE: This offer also applies to Match Result (Win Draw Win) bets placed in shop on The Grid. Match Result refunds do not apply to any other customers. Free bets will be issued when the losing receipt is presented at the counter and will be valid for 7 days.

* I actually placed my qualifying bet on Liverpool/Liverpool (Half-Time/Full-Time) at back odds of 6.50 and lay odds of 7.60. I placed my extra lay bet on the draw at odds of 3.45, meaning I made a profit of £6.04 on this Ladbrokes offer. *

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13 Comments

  1. Matt

    January 12, 2017
    / Reply

    Hi Matt, as far as I can see, having read the T's and C's, it seems that you're refunded up to £25 on each market, so we could place a bet on the correct score, half time/full time, and the first goalscorer markets, trebling our potential profit. Feel free to read them yourself just to make sure but the wording makes it sound like its per market

    • Bob47474

      January 12, 2017
      / Reply

      I think you're right Matt. I wonder if we can do this in store. It'd definitely make my journey much more worth while. Never placed an in store bet before but I'm gubbed online.

    • Matt

      Matt

      January 13, 2017
      / Reply

      That's correct Matt, just be careful not to place bets on too many markets as it may arouse suspicion.

  2. Bob47474

    January 12, 2017
    / Reply

    Also there are 4 Ladbrokes within a 45 minute round trip drive of me. If I put 3 bets on at each... 12 potential £25 free bets.

  3. Bob47474

    January 12, 2017
    / Reply

    Actually ignore me, I don't think you can do that

    • Micky MB

      January 13, 2017
      / Reply

      Why not?

  4. Noob

    January 12, 2017
    / Reply

    Hi i'm a matched betting noob and was wondering about the overlay to guarantee a small profit,
    so if i back man utd/man utd on Lads at 3.4 and lay on smarkets currently 4 giving a ql of 4.08 and then 20.00 minus the 4.08 leaving 15.92 profit if a draw, then can i lay the draw currently 3.5 at 6.37 with the 15.92 liability? will this guarantee 6.37 profit?

  5. Noob

    January 13, 2017
    / Reply

    I figured out where i went wrong, i layed the draw at 3.5 for 7.20 with a liability of £18, i have trouble extracting 80% so went a little lower, so 7.20 minus the 4.08 gives a guaranteedish profit of 3.12, i guess this method would be good on the red card offers.

    • Matt

      Matt

      January 13, 2017
      / Reply

      To work out the overlay stake that gives you an equal guaranteed profit on any outcome, you need to divide £20.00 by 3.48 (draw lay odds minus 0.02 to account for Smarkets commission).

      £20.00 / 3.48 = £5.75 which gives you a guaranteed profit of £1.56 on any outcome.

      My advice would be to wait until a bit closer to the game as you need to minimise that qualifying loss and the odds should tighten up, allowing you to do this.

  6. Alex

    January 15, 2017
    / Reply

    Hi mate, i'm completely confused by the risk free element:

    "divide our potential loss of £2.36 by 0.98 (to account for the 2% commission) which gives us a lay stake of £2.41…"

    How do you get 0.98 - i use betfair so need to work out 5%.

    Thanks!

    • Jim

      January 15, 2017
      / Reply

      Use 0.95 for Betfair.

      100-5% commision=95%

      You're essentially dividing your qualifying loss by 95%
      (95/100=0.95)

  7. Alex

    January 15, 2017
    / Reply

    Hi,

    Can you help me further on this part please?

    we just need to divide our potential loss of £2.36 by 0.98 (to account for the 2% commission) which gives us a lay stake of £2.41…

    I cannot for the life of me work out the 0.98 figure!

    Thanks!

    • Jim

      January 15, 2017
      / Reply

      A little late, but should help in the future:

      Smarkets charge you 2% commission on your winnings, so if you use a lay stake of qualifying loss/0.98, you are guaranteed to break even in case the draw doesn't happen.


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