It’s Champions League Final night and Ladbrokes are getting in on the action. If both teams score in Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid, Ladbrokes will refund losing Correct Score, First Goalscorers, Half Time/Full Time and Match Result (Grid only) in-shop bets as a free bet up to a maximum of £25.00 per market. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £6.71 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
I don’t usually blog in-shop offers, but this is a great opportunity to bag a guaranteed profit and it’s likely that many of you won’t live too far from a Ladbrokes betting shop, so I thought I’d stick it on.
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
We need to place our qualifying bet on a Correct Score that sees someone keep a clean sheet. This ensures that if both teams score, we will automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost.
Using their online odds as a guide, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on a 0-0 draw.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £22.92…
Place £25.00 on a 0-0 draw @ 7.50 = Potential profit of £162.50
Lay £22.92 on a 0-0 draw @ 8.20 = Potential liability of £165.04
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| 0-0 draw | + £162.50 – £165.04 = £2.54 loss |
| Not 0-0 draw and both teams score | – £25.00 + £22.46 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £17.46 profit |
| Not 0-0 draw and someone keeps a clean sheet | – £25.00 + £22.46 = £2.54 loss |
So, as things stand, if both teams score, we will make a nice profit of £17.46. Any other outcome and we’ll lose £2.54.
We can actually guarantee ourselves a profit on any outcome by placing an extra lay bet on both teams scoring at Smarkets. To work out our lay stake, we need to divide £20.00 (the amount we expect to extract from our £25.00 free bet refund) by 2.12 (lay odds minus 0.02 to account for the 2% commission). So £20.00 divided by 2.12 gives us a lay stake of £9.43…
Lay £9.43 on ‘Both Teams Score – Yes’ @ 2.14 = Potential liability of £10.75
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| 0-0 draw | – £2.54 + £9.25 = £6.71 profit |
| Not 0-0 draw and both teams score | £17.46 – £10.75 = £6.71 profit |
| Not 0-0 draw and someone keeps a clean sheet | – £2.54 + £9.25 = £6.71 profit |
So, regardless of the result of the match, we will make a guaranteed profit of £6.71 on this Ladbrokes offer.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.