It’s Liverpool v Man City in today’s late kick-off and you don’t want to miss this Free Bet Special from Paddy Power. Simply place a bet on selected markets and if Sergio Aguero scores anytime, Paddy Power will refund all losing bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £6.06 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
The eligible markets are First/Last/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score and WhatOddsPaddy.
It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on a 1-1 draw in the Correct Score market.
We’ll need to place our lay bet with Smarkets as Betfair have joined forces with Paddy Power and are now part of the same group.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £8.74…
Place £10.00 on a 1-1 draw @ 7.50 = Potential profit of £65.00
Lay £8.74 on a 1-1 draw @ 8.60 = Potential liability of £66.42
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| 1-1 draw | + £65.00 – £66.42 = £1.42 loss |
| Not a 1-1 draw and Aguero scores | – £10.00 + £8.56 + £7.50 (extract 75% from our £10.00 free bet) = £6.06 profit |
| Not a 1-1 draw and Aguero doesn’t score | – £10.00 + £8.56 = £1.44 loss |
So, we’ll make a nice profit of £6.06 if the match isn’t drawn 1-1 and Sergio Aguero scores. We stand to lose a maximum of £1.44 on any other outcome. Risking £1.44 to make a profit of £6.06 gives us effective odds of 5.21. Given that Sergio Aguero is odds of just 2.00 (evens) to score anytime, this is a profitable offer in the long run even though we need any score other than a 1-1 draw.
If eligible, free bets will be credited within an hour of the match ending and will be valid for 7 days on football markets.
If you’re unsure how to extract 75% of a £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* Liverpool won the match 4-3 and Aguero didn’t score, resulting in a loss of £1.44 on this Paddy Power offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £100,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.