It’s Man City v Chelsea in the Premier League today and you don’t want to miss this Money Back Special from Paddy Power. Simply place a bet on selected markets and if Sergio Aguero scores anytime, Paddy Power will refund all losing bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £5.70 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
The eligible markets are First/Last/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score and WhatOddsPaddy.
For our qualifying bet, we need to back and lay a selection of our choice. Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on 2-0 Man City (7/1) in the Correct Score market.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator.
Aim to lose no more than £1.80 on our qualifying bet
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| 2-0 Man City | + £70.00 – £71.80 = £1.80 loss |
| Not 2-0 Man City and Aguero scores | – £10.00 + £8.20 + £7.50 (extract 75% from our £10.00 free bet) = £5.70 profit |
| Not 2-0 Man City and Aguero doesn’t score | – £10.00 + £8.20 = £1.80 loss |
So, we’ll make a nice profit of £5.70 if Man City don’t win 2-0 and Sergio Aguero scores. We stand to lose £1.80 on any other outcome. Risking £1.80 to make a profit of £5.70 gives us effective odds of 4.17. Given that Sergio Aguero is odds of just 2.10 (11/10) to score anytime, this is a profitable offer in the long run even though we need any score other than 2-0 Man City.
If eligible, free bets will be credited within two hours of the final whistle and will be valid for 7 days on football markets.
If you’re unsure how to extract 75% of a £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* Man City won the match 1-0 and Aguero didn’t score, resulting in a loss of £1.80 on this Paddy Power offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.