It’s Man City v Watford in the FA Cup Final on Saturday and you don’t want to miss this Money Back Special from Paddy Power. Simply place a bet on selected markets and if Aguero scores in 90 minutes, Paddy Power will refund all losing bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £6.20 and here’s how…
Key Terms:
- Qualifying bets must be placed between 17:00 on Tuesday 14th May 2019 and 17:00 (kick-off) on Saturday 18th May 2019.
- The eligible markets are First/Last/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score and WhatOddsPaddy.
- If our first bet loses and Aguero scores in 90 minutes, Paddy Power will refund our stake as a free bet, up to £10.00.
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bet on. Our best option is likely to be the Correct Score market. Ideally, we should select a scoreline that doesn’t see Man City score, but that may be tricky given that Man City are heavy favourites to win the match.
At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional lay odds for 1-0 Man City (6/1) in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with an actual selection after the match.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator.
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
Outcome | Bookie | Exchange | Extracted | Profit/Loss |
---|---|---|---|---|
1-0 Man City | +£60.00 | -£61.80 | £1.80 loss | |
Not 1-0 Man City and Aguero scores | -£10.00 | +£8.20 | +£8.00 | £6.20 profit |
Not 1-0 Man City and Aguero doesn’t score | -£10.00 | +£8.20 | £1.80 loss |
So, we’ll make a nice profit of £6.20 if Man City don’t win 1-0 and Aguero scores in 90 minutes and we stand to lose £1.80 on any other outcome. Risking £1.80 to make a profit of £6.20, gives us effective odds of 4.44. So, given that Aguero is odds of just 1.667 (4/6) to score anytime, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, free bets will be credited within two hours of the match ending and will be valid for 7 days on football markets.
If you’re unsure how to extract £8.00 cash (80%) from the £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* Aguero wasn’t named in Man City’s starting line-up, so it was best to leave this offer. *
More reload offers – Make £300+ per month
With detailed walkthroughs for all the best offers as they’re released, you’ll be bagging recurring profits in no time.
More reload offers
Nick
Guest userOdds are way out on this at the minute. Any one placed anything yet with a low qualifying loss?
Alex
Guest userThe qualifying loss on these correct score offers from PaddyPower can be significant so I only do them if I have a strongish hunch and/or a power up (odds boost). They tighten up a bit closer to kick off, but not by that much. Not doing too many of them has probably helped me avoid getting gubbed.
Aaron
Guest userHe’s not even playing? What happens now?
Chris
Guest userDidnt play i suspect you just lose
aaronzebaron
5Cashed out and left the 2-0 lay on…