It’s Man Utd v Liverpool in Saturday’s early kick-off and you don’t want to miss this Money Back Special from Paddy Power. Simply place a bet on selected markets and if Romelu Lukaku scores anytime, Paddy Power will refund all losing bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £6.10 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
The eligible markets are First/Last/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score and WhatOddsPaddy.
For our qualifying bet, we need to back and lay a selection of our choice. Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on a 1-1 draw (11/2) in the Correct Score market.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator.
Aim to lose no more than £1.40 on our qualifying bet
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| 1-1 draw | + £55.00 – £56.40 = £1.40 loss |
| Not a 1-1 draw and Lukaku scores | – £10.00 + £8.60 + £7.50 (extract 75% from our £10.00 free bet) = £6.10 profit |
| Not a 1-1 draw and Lukaku doesn’t score | – £10.00 + £8.60 = £1.40 loss |
So, we’ll make a nice profit of £6.10 if the match isn’t drawn 1-1 and Lukaku scores. We stand to lose £1.40 on any other outcome. Risking £1.40 to make a profit of £6.10 gives us effective odds of 5.36. Given that Lukaku is odds of just 2.625 (13/8) to score anytime, this is a profitable offer in the long run even though we need any score other than a 1-1 draw.
If eligible, free bets will be credited by 10:00 on Sunday 11th March 2018 and will be valid for 7 days on football markets.
If you’re unsure how to extract 75% of a £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* Man Utd won the match 2-1 and Lukaku didn’t score, resulting in a loss of £1.40 on this Paddy Power offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.