Man Utd vs Tottenham Paddy Power Money-Back Special

This is another great offer from Paddy Power.  If the match ends as a draw, Paddy Power will refund all losing First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast singles on the match, up to a maximum of £100.00.  Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £21.58!  And here’s how…

Whenever I do these sort of money-back offers, I always stick to the correct score market.  I find the liquidity at the betting exchange is far better than goalscorer markets and I just feel more comfortable here.

We will need to select a correct score that isn’t a draw and I will explain why later.  With that in mind and having looked at the odds on offer, I’ve opted for a 1-0 Man Utd win.

 

Step 1:

Place £100 on 1-0 Man Utd @ Paddy Power @ 8.5 = Potential profit of £750.00.

Lay £85.43 on 1-0 Man Utd @ Betfair @ 10.0 = Potential liability of £768.87.

Step 2:

Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…

 

1-0 Man Utd £750.00 – £768.87 = -£18.87
Draw +£81.16 (£85.43 minus 5% commission) *Our £100 stake is refunded
Not Draw or 1-0 -£100 + £81.16 = -£18.84

 

So as things stand we will win £81.16 if the game ends as a draw! Unfortunately we also stand to lose just under £19.00 if the game doesn’t end in a draw and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying the draw at Betfair.  If we had selected a correct score that was a draw such as 0-0 or 1-1, it would make the next step a lot more complicated.

 

Step 3:

As £18.87 is the maximum we stand to lose, we need to work out our draw lay stake by taking commission into consideration.  £18.87 / 0.95 = £19.86.

Lay £19.86 on the draw @ Betfair @ 4.0 = Potential liability of £59.58.

Now let’s have a look at our overall potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…

 

1-0 Man Utd -£18.87 + £18.87 = £0.00
Draw £81.16 – £59.58 = £21.58 profit
Not Draw or 1-0 -£18.84 + £18.87 = £0.03 profit

 

So, if the game isn’t drawn we break even, but if the game is drawn we make £21.58 profit for very little work!

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.