This is a fantastic Money-Back Special offer from Paddy Power. If Manchester United qualify for the Champions League quarter-finals against Olympiakos, Paddy Power will refund all losing First/Last Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast singles on that match as a free bet up to a maximum of £100.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £27.59! And here’s how…
I always prefer to stick to the correct score market for these type of offers and we need to select a correct score that won’t take Manchester United through to the quarter-finals on aggregate. This ensures that if Manchester United qualify, we will qualify for the free bet as our initial bet will have lost. Having looked at the odds on offer, I’ve opted for a 2-1 Manchester United win.
Step 1:
Place £100.00 on 2-1 Man United @ 9.50 = Potential profit of £850.00
Lay £90.91 on 2-1 Man United @ 10.50 = Potential liability of £863.65
Step 2:
Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
2-1 Man Utd | +£850.00 – £863.65 = £13.65 loss |
Not 2-1 Man Utd + Man Utd qualify | -£100.00 + £86.36 + £75.00 (extract 75% from our £100.00 free bet) = £61.36 profit |
Not 2-1 Man Utd + Man Utd don’t qualify | -£100.00 + £86.36 = £13.64 loss |
So as things stand we will make £61.36 profit if Manchester United don’t win 2-1 and they qualify. Unfortunately, we also stand to lose a minimum of £13.64 if they fail to qualify by any scoreline and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying ‘United to qualify’ at Betfair.
Step 3:
As £13.65 is the maximum we stand to lose, we need to work out our lay stake by taking commission into consideration. £13.65 / 0.95 = £14.37.
Let’s have a look at our resulting potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
2-1 Man Utd | -£13.65 + £13.65 = £0.00 |
Not 2-1 Man Utd + Man Utd qualify | +£61.36 – £33.77 = £27.59 profit |
Not 2-1 Man Utd + Man Utd don’t qualify | -£13.64 + £13.65 = £0.01 profit |
If Manchester United fail to qualify by any scoreline, we will break even, so no harm done. If they do qualify for the quarter-finals, we will make a nice profit of £27.59! Easy!
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.