There’s a big midweek of Champions League football to look forward to and you don’t want to miss this Money Back Special from Paddy Power! If an English team wins their Champions League match, Paddy Power will refund all losing bets on selected markets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £6.50 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
This week’s eligible matches are as follows…
| Fixture | Kick-Off | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool v Porto | 19:45 | Tuesday 6th March 2018 |
| Man City v FC Basel | 19:45 | Wednesday 7th March 2018 |
| Tottenham v Juventus | 19:45 | Wednesday 7th March 2018 |
Our qualifying bets must be placed on the First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer, Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score or WhatOddsPaddy market, to be eligible.
It makes sense to place our qualifying bets on Correct Scores that don’t see the English teams winning. This means if the English teams win, we’ll automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bets will have lost.
The following example is for Liverpool v Porto. Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on a 1-1 draw (8/1).
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator.
Aim to lose no more than £1.00 on each of our qualifying bets
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| 1-1 draw | + £80.00 – £81.00 = £1.00 loss |
| Liverpool win | – £10.00 + £9.00 + £7.50 (extract 75% from our £10.00 free bet) = £6.50 profit |
| Any other outcome | – £10.00 + £9.00 = £1.00 loss |
So, if Liverpool win, we’ll make a nice profit of £6.50, otherwise we’ll lose £1.00. Risking £1.00 to make a profit of £6.50, gives us effective odds of 7.50. So, given that Liverpool are odds of just 1.444 (4/9) to win the match, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, free bets will be credited by 12:00 on Thursday 8th March 2018 and will be valid on football for 7 days. Free bet stakes are not included in any returns.
If you’re unsure how to extract 75% of our £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
We are only able to qualify for one free bet, so if our first bet wins, there’s no point in placing any further qualifying bets. I’ll update the following table with some actual selections after the matches have been played…
| Fixture | Selection | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Qualifying Loss | Potential Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool v Porto | 1-1 draw | 9.00 | 9.80 | £1.00 | £6.50 |
| Man City v FC Basel | 2-1 Man City | 10.00 | 10.50 | £0.66 | £6.84 |
| Tottenham v Juventus | – | – | – | – | – |
* Liverpool drew 0-0 and Man City lost 2-1, resulting in an overall loss of £1.66 on this Paddy Power offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.