Another fantastic Paddy Power free bet offer. If the World Cup match between England and Italy is won by Italy, Paddy Power will refund all losing First/Last Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast singles on that match as a free bet up to a maximum of £100.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed minimum profit of £9.82 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how to place your qualifying bets.
We need to select a scoreline that isn’t an Italy win. This ensures that if Italy win the game, we will automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted for a 0-0 draw.
Place £100.00 on 0-0 draw @ 6.50 = Potential profit of £550.00
Lay £88.44 on 0-0 draw @ 7.40 = Potential liability of £566.02
Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| 0-0 draw | +£550.00 – £566.02 = £16.02 loss |
| Not 0-0 draw and Italy win | -£100.00 + £84.01 + £80.00 (extract 80% from our £100.00 free bet) = £64.01 profit |
| Not 0-0 draw and Italy don’t win | -£100.00 + £84.01 = £15.99 loss |
So as things stand we will make £64.01 profit if the match is won by Italy. Unfortunately, we also stand to lose a maximum of £16.02 on any other result and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying an Italian win at Betfair.
Lay £27.20 on Italy @ 2.98 = Potential liability of £53.86
Let’s have a look at our resulting potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| 0-0 draw | -£16.02 + £25.84 (£27.20 minus 5% commission) = £9.82 profit |
| Not 0-0 draw and Italy win | £64.01 – £53.46 = £10.18 profit |
| Not 0-0 draw and Italy don’t win | -£15.99 + £25.84 = £9.85 profit |
So regardless of the result of game, we will make a guaranteed minimum profit of £9.82! If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of the £100.00 free bet refund, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £100,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.