Another fantastic Paddy Power free bet offer. If the Champions League match between FC Basle and Liverpool is drawn, Paddy Power will refund all losing First/Last Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast singles on that match as a free bet up to a maximum of £100.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £11.10 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how to place your qualifying bets.
We need to select a scoreline that isn’t a draw. This ensures that if the game is drawn, we will automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted for a 2-1 Liverpool win.
Place £100.00 on 2-1 Liverpool @ 9.00 = Potential profit of £800.00
Lay £86.12 on 2-1 Liverpool @ 10.50 = Potential liability of £818.14
Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| 2-1 Liverpool | +£800.00 – £818.14 = £18.14 loss |
| Not 2-1 Liverpool and the game is drawn | -£100.00 + £81.82 + £80.00 (extract 80% from our £100.00 free bet) = £61.82 profit |
| Not 2-1 Liverpool and the game isn’t drawn | -£100.00 + £81.82 = £18.18 loss |
So as things stand we will make £61.82 profit if the match is drawn. Unfortunately, we also stand to lose a maximum of £18.18 on any other result and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying the draw at Betfair. We need to divide £18.18 by 0.95 in order to factor in the 5% commission. This gives us a lay stake of £19.14.
Lay £19.14 on a draw @ 3.65 = Potential liability of £50.72
Let’s have a look at our resulting potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| 2-1 Liverpool | -£18.14 + £18.18 = £0.04 profit |
| Not 2-1 Liverpool and the game is drawn | £61.82 – £50.72 = £11.10 profit |
| Not 2-1 Liverpool and the game isn’t drawn | -£18.18 + £18.18 = £0.00 |
So if the game is drawn, we will make a nice profit of £11.10! If the game isn’t drawn, we will break even and there’s no harm done. If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of the £100.00 free bet refund, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £100,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.