Another fantastic Paddy Power free bet offer. Pick your own Money Back Special from the four options and if it happens, Paddy Power will refund all losing First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast singles on this match as a free bet up to maximum of £100.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential risk-free profit of £17.82 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
First of all, you will see from the banner above, that ‘if Sanchez scores anytime’ is the default option for this offer. The other three options are ‘if the match ends as a draw’, ‘if arsenal win’ and ‘if Aguero scores first’. I’ve crunched the figures and the only trigger I can guarantee a profit on is the ‘if the match ends a draw’ option, so we need to make sure this is selected.
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how to place your qualifying bets.
I always stick to the correct score markets for these offers, as it is the only way we can make it risk-free. We need to select a scoreline that isn’t a draw. This ensures that if the match is drawn, we will automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted for a 3-1 Manchester City win.
Place £100.00 on 3-1 Man City @ 13.00 = Potential profit of £1,200.00
Lay £89.97 on 3-1 Man City @ 14.50 = Potential liability of £1,214.60
Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| 3-1 Man City | +£1200.00 – £1214.60 = £14.60 loss |
| Not 3-1 Man City and the match is drawn | -£100.00 + £85.47 + £80.00 (extract 80% from our £100.00 free bet) = £65.47 profit |
| Not 3-1 Man City and the match isn’t drawn | -£100.00 + £85.47 = £14.53 loss |
So as things stand we will make £65.47 profit if the match is drawn. Unfortunately, we also stand to lose a maximum of £14.60 on any other result and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying the draw at Betfair. We need to divide our potential loss of £14.60 by 0.95 to account for the 5% commission that is deducted from any winnings. This gives us a lay stake of £15.37.
Lay £15.37 on the draw @ 4.10 = Potential liability of £47.65
Let’s have a look at our resulting potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| 3-1 Man City | -£14.60 + £14.60 = £0.00 |
| Not 3-1 Man City and the match is drawn | £65.47 – £47.65 = £17.82 profit |
| Not 3-1 Man City and the match isn’t drawn | -£14.53 + £14.60 = £0.07 profit |
So if Manchester City v Arsenal is drawn, we will make a nice profit of £17.82! If, however, the match isn’t drawn, we will break even and there’s no harm done. If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of the £100.00 free bet refund, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.