Paddy Power Free Bet Offer – Man City v Chelsea

Another fantastic Paddy Power free bet offer.  If Diego Costa scores anytime during Manchester City v Chelsea, Paddy Power will refund all losing First/Last Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast singles on that match as a free bet up to a maximum of £50.00.  Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £14.10 and here’s how…

Qualifying bet

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how to place your qualifying bets.

I always place my qualifying bets on the correct score market for these types of offer as the liquidity at the betting exchange is usually pretty good and I just feel more comfortable here.  Usually, I would advise selecting a scoreline that sees Man City keeping a clean sheet.  This would guarantee that if Costa scores, we would automatically be eligible for the free bet refund as our qualifying bet would have lost.  Unfortunately, the odds just aren’t great for a Man City clean sheet.  Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted for a 1-1 draw.

paddypower

Place £50.00 on 1-1 draw @ 7.00 = Potential profit of £300.00

betfair

Lay £44.03 on 1-1 draw @ 8.00 = Potential liability of £308.21

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…

1-1 draw and Costa doesn’t score +£300.00 – £308.21 = £8.21 loss
1-1 draw and Costa scores +£300.00 – £308.21 = £8.21 loss
Not 1-1 draw and Costa scores -£50.00 + £41.82 + £40.00 (extract 80% from our £50.00 free bet) = £31.82 profit
Not 1-1 draw and Costa doesn’t score -£50.00 + £41.82 = £8.18 loss

If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of the £50.00 free bet refund, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.

So as things stand we will make £31.82 profit if the match isn’t drawn 1-1 and Costa scores. Unfortunately, we also stand to lose a maximum of £8.21 if it finishes 1-1 or Costa doesn’t score.  We can insure ourselves against this by laying Costa to score at the betting exchange.  In order to calculate our lay stake, we need to divide £8.21 by 0.95 to account for the 5% commission.  This gives us a lay stake of £8.64.

betfair

Lay £8.64 on Costa scoring anytime @ 2.82 = Potential liability of £15.72

Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

1-1 draw and Costa doesn’t score -£8.21 + £8.21 = £0.00
1-1 draw and Costa scores -£8.21 – £15.72 = +£300.00 – £308.21 = £23.93 loss
Not 1-1 draw and Costa scores +£31.82 – £15.72 = £16.10 profit
Not 1-1 draw and Costa doesn’t score -£8.18 + £8.21 = £0.03 profit

As you can see, the only outcome that leaves us vulnerable is Costa scoring in a 1-1 draw.  We can cover this by sticking a couple of quid on an anytime scorecast.  There are a few bookies that offer this market.  At Bet365, you can place £2.00 on Costa to score anytime in a 1-1 draw at 16/1.

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.