Another fantastic Paddy Power free bet offer. If Chelsea beat Manchester United, Paddy Power will refund all losing First/Last Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast singles on that match as a free bet up to a maximum of £100.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £12.51 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how to place your qualifying bets.
We need to select a scoreline that isn’t a Chelsea win. This ensures that if Chelsea win, we will automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted for a 1-1 draw.
Place £100.00 on 1-1 draw @ 6.00 = Potential profit of £500.00
Lay £77.41 on 1-1 draw @ 7.80 = Potential liability of £526.39
Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| 1-1 draw | +£500.00 – £526.39 = £26.39 loss |
| Not 1-1 draw and Chelsea win | -£100.00 + £73.62 + £80.00 (extract 80% from our £100.00 free bet) = £53.62 profit |
| Not 1-1 draw and Chelsea don’t win | -£100.00 + £73.62 = £26.38 loss |
So as things stand we will make £53.62 profit if Chelsea win. Unfortunately, we also stand to lose a maximum of £26.39 on any other result and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying Chelsea at Betfair. We need to divide £26.39 by 0.95 in order to factor in the 5% commission. This gives us a lay stake of £27.78.
Lay £27.78 on Chelsea @ 2.48 = Potential liability of £41.11
Let’s have a look at our resulting potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| 1-1 draw | -£26.39 + £26.39 = £0.00 |
| Not 1-1 draw and Chelsea win | £53.62 – £41.11 = £12.51 profit |
| Not 1-1 draw and Chelsea don’t win | -£26.38 + £26.39 = £0.01 profit |
So if Chelsea win, we will make a nice profit of £12.51! If the game isn’t won by Chelsea, we will break even and there’s no harm done. If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of the £100.00 free bet refund, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.