Another fantastic Paddy Power free bet offer. If Radamel Falcao scores anytime during Manchester United v QPR, Paddy Power will refund all losing First/Last Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast singles on that match as a free bet up to a maximum of £50.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £33.18 and here’s how…
Qualifying bet
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how to place your qualifying bets.
I always place my qualifying bets on the correct score market for these types of offer as the liquidity at the betting exchange is usually pretty good and I just feel more comfortable here. Usually, I would advise selecting a scoreline that sees QPR keeping a clean sheet. This would guarantee that if Falcao scores, we would automatically be eligible for the free bet refund as our qualifying bet would have lost. Unfortunately, due to United being big favourites to win this match, the odds just aren’t available for a QPR clean sheet. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted for a 2-0 United win.
Place £50.00 on 2-0 Man Utd @ 6.50 = Potential profit of £275.00
Lay £45.45 on 2-0 Man Utd @ 7.2 = Potential liability of £281.79
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| 2-0 Man Utd and Falcao doesn’t score | +£275.00 – £281.79 = £6.79 loss |
| 2-0 Man Utd and Falcao scores | +£275.00 – £281.79 = £6.79 loss |
| Not 2-0 Man Utd and Falcao scores | -£50.00 + £43.18 + £40.00 (extract 80% from our £50.00 free bet) = £33.18 profit |
| Not 2-0 Man Utd and Falcao doesn’t score | -£50.00 + £43.18 = £6.82 loss |
So as things stand we will make £33.18 profit if the match isn’t won 2-0 by United and Falcao scores. Unfortunately, we also stand to lose a maximum of £6.82 if United win 2-0 or Falcao doesn’t score. I’m happy to leave things as they are for this offer and accept the potential loss of £6.82 as Falcao is a massive favourite to score anytime, so this offer is definitely profitable in the long run.
If, however, you are not so keen to accept the risk, you can lay Falcao to score at Betfair at odds of around 2.48. This will cover the two scenarios where Falcao doesn’t score. You will then be left with a larger liability on the ‘2-0 Man Utd and Falcao scores’ outcome. You can cover this by sticking a couple of quid on an anytime scorecast… 2-0 United and Falcao to score anytime. There are a few bookies that offer this market.
If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of the £50.00 free bet refund, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.