Another fantastic Paddy Power free bet offer. If the Premier League match between Stoke City and Newcastle United is drawn, Paddy Power will refund all losing First/Last Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast singles on that match as a free bet up to a maximum of £100.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £7.41 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how to place your qualifying bets.
We need to select a scoreline that isn’t a draw. This ensures that if the game is drawn, we will automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted for a 1-0 Stoke City win.
Place £100.00 on 1-0 Stoke @ 7.00 = Potential profit of £600.00
Lay £83.82 on 1-0 Stoke @ 8.40 = Potential liability of £620.27
Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| 1-0 Stoke | +£600.00 – £620.27 = £20.27 loss |
| Not 1-0 Stoke and the game is drawn | -£100.00 + £79.72 + £80.00 (extract 80% from our £100.00 free bet) = £59.72 profit |
| Not 1-0 Stoke and the game isn’t drawn | -£100.00 + £79.72 = £20.28 loss |
So as things stand we will make £59.72 profit if the match is drawn. Unfortunately, we also stand to lose a maximum of £20.28 on any other result and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying the draw at Betfair. We need to divide £20.28 by 0.95 in order to factor in the 5% commission. This gives us a lay stake of £21.35.
Lay £21.35 on a draw @ 3.45 = Potential liability of £52.31
Let’s have a look at our resulting potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| 1-0 Stoke | -£20.27 + £20.28 = £0.01 profit |
| Not 1-0 Stoke and the game is drawn | £59.72 – £52.31 = £7.41 profit |
| Not 1-0 Stoke and the game isn’t drawn | -£20.28 + £20.28 = £0.00 |
So if the game is drawn, we will make a nice profit of £7.41! If the game isn’t drawn, we will break even and there’s no harm done. If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of the £100.00 free bet refund, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.