The World Cup is here and it’s another great Paddy Power free bet offer. Simply place a £20.00 bet on the World Cup Top Goalscorer market and Paddy Power will give us a £5.00 free bet for every goal he scores during the tournament. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £22.27 and here’s how…
Qualifying bets
If you’re new to matched betting, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how to place your qualifying bets. First of all, we need to select the player that we think is going to score the most goals in the tournament. I’ve decided to pick Fred of Brazil as I fancy Brazil to go all the way this year.
Place £20.00 on Fred @ 21.00 = Potential profit of £400.00
Lay £19.13 on Fred @ 22.00 = Potential liability of £401.73
Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the two outcomes…
| Fred is top scorer | +£400.00 – £401.73 = £1.73 loss |
| Fred isn’t top scorer | -£20.00 + £18.18 (£19.13 minus 5% commission) = £1.82 loss |
So regardless of who scores the most goals at the World Cup, we will lose a maximum of £1.82 in qualifying for our free bets.
Free bets
Every time Fred scores a goal at the World Cup, we will receive a £5.00 free bet. By using straightforward matched betting, we are able to extract 80% of any free bet (see my Free Bet Strategy page), which in this case gives us £4.00 profit per free bet. This means we only need Fred to score one goal to break even and any more after that is clear profit. If Fred can win the Golden Boot with 6 goals, we will receive £30.00 worth of free bets, which gives us a potential overall profit of £22.27!
*Fred went on to score just 1 goal at World Cup 2014 giving us a £5.00 free bet *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.