It’s Week 5 of the Champions League 2016/17 group stage and you don’t want to miss this Paddy Power offer! Simply bet £20.00 on any Champions League game this week, featuring a British club and if our selection is leading after 60 minutes but fails to win the match, Paddy Power will give us a £20.00 free bet! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us an overall potential profit of £75.00 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bets:
This week’s eligible matches are as follows…
| Fixture | Kick-Off | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester v Club Brugge | 19:45 | Tuesday 22nd November 2016 |
| Monaco v Tottenham | 19:45 | Tuesday 22nd November 2016 |
| Arsenal v PSG | 19:45 | Wednesday 23rd November 2016 |
| Monchengladbach v Man City | 19:45 | Wednesday 23rd November 2016 |
| Celtic v Barcelona | 19:45 | Wednesday 23rd November 2016 |
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
This offer applies to pre-match single bets placed on the Win-Draw-Win market for the above fixtures. If our selected teams are leading after 60 minutes, but fail to win the match, Paddy Power will refund our stake on that match as a free bet, up to a maximum of £20.00.
Having looked at the odds available for Leicester City v Club Brugge, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Leicester City.
WARNING: Following the recent merger between Paddy Power and Betfair, to become Paddy Power Betfair, it’s no longer a good idea to place our lay bets with Betfair as this will surely increase our chances of getting restricted. Therefore, when doing Paddy Power offers, we need to place our lay bets with Smarkets. They have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by Betfair. We can also grab a £10.00 risk-free bet, just for signing up.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £19.85…
Place £20.00 on Leicester City @ 1.667 = Potential profit of £13.34
Lay £19.85 on Leicester City @ 1.70 = Potential liability of £13.89
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Leicester City win | + £13.34 – £13.89 = £0.55 loss |
| Leicester City don’t win (leading after 60 mins) | – £20.00 + £19.45 + £16.00 (extract 80% from £20.00 free bet) = £15.45 profit |
| Leicester City don’t win (not leading after 60 mins) | – £20.00 + £19.45 = £0.55 loss |
So, if Leicester City don’t win, having been leading after 60 minutes, we’ll make a nice profit of £15.45. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a small loss of £0.55. Risking £0.55 to make a profit of £15.45, gives us effective odds of 29.09, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
This offer is available on all five specified matches. It’s entirely up to you which selections you go for. I’ll update the following table with my selections throughout the week…
| Fixture | Selection | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Qualifying Loss | Potential Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester v Club Brugge | Leicester | 1.667 | 1.70 | £0.55 | £15.45 |
| Monaco v Tottenham | Tottenham | 2.70 | 2.76 | £0.69 | £15.31 |
| Arsenal v PSG | PSG | 3.30 | 3.35 | £0.58 | £15.42 |
| Monchengladbach v Man City | Man City | 1.80 | 1.83 | £0.51 | £15.49 |
| Celtic v Barcelona | Barcelona | 1.30 | 1.30 | £0.09 | £15.91 |
So, as you can see, we’ll lose between £0.20-£1.00 on each bet that doesn’t come off, but with approximately £15.00 profit per game up for grabs, this offer is well worth a shot!
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.